Evidence continues to mount that the public’s social distancing measures are slowing the spread of new COVID-19 infections in AZ, and that existing hospital capacity is adequate with a wide margin of safety.
The newest run of the IHME model predicts that Arizona has already reached our peak hospital demand (with the in the last few days). Future demand is predicted decline slowly over the next 4 weeks. The model no longer shows any scenarios in which capacity is likely to be exceeded (in the short-term). Importantly, this model outcome assumes that we continue to maintain our social distancing efforts over the coming weeks.
Our statewide mitigation success provides policy makers with an opportunity to revise some earlier policy decisions that will improve public health while continuing to ensure that Arizona has the hospital surge capacity to meet peak demand for patients with COVID-19.
Elective Procedures
The resulting safety margin for hospital capacity and our hospital system’s improving planning regarding the use of personal protective equipment provides an opportunity to relax the limitations on elective procedures under Executive Order 2020-10. We believe that adjusting Executive Order 2020-10 to allow hospitals to conduct elective procedures would improve public health outcomes for patients and allow for continued adequate surge hospital capacity.
Hospital Capacity
Under Executive Order 2020-16, Arizona hospitals have already implemented plans to increase hospital capacity by 25%. The Order further directs that hospitals implement an additional 25% increase by April 26. Given the success of Arizona’s control measures, and the predictive models suggesting that Arizona already has adequate capacity to meet peak demand, we urge the suspension of E.O. 2020-16 (the directive that Arizona hospitals increase capacity by another 25% by April 26).
Alternate Care Sites
The State has been preparing to stand up alternate care sites to handle the surge that was expected using model runs from a month ago (e.g. opening the closed St Luke’s Hospital). Data and predictive modeling is now making it clear that scaled alternate care sites won’t be needed- and those financial resources and staff effort would be better served by improving testing and contact tracing capacity in my opinion.
