Dr. Joe Gerald from the UA Mel & Enid Zuckerman College of Public Health just finished his latest model run for Arizona. The COVID ACT NOW group is now reporting the effective viral transmission value R0 by state and county. The R0 for Arizona is 1.12 indicating continued modest case growth with a peak daily case count projected at some future date. Our goal is to get the R0 to less than 1.
R0 is called the “R Naught” and it represents the number of people each infected person transmits the virus to. When an R0 figure drops below 1, it means that the number of new cases isn’t expected to grow. New cases will still occur, but the number wouldn’t be expected to increase.
Social distancing has slowed and continues to slow viral transmission; however, reported cases, hospitalizations, or ICU utilization has yet to clearly peak. Community-driven viral transmission remains in place suggesting that maintaining social distancing remains important in order to prevent a resurgence and a rebound of the R0. While current social distancing restrictions appear to be sufficient to prevent exponential growth, transmission is still occurring.
Dr. Gerald reports that “… COVID-19 testing remains constrained with inadequate testing for clinical and public health demands. Until this is overcome lifting social distancing restrictions risks a resurgence in active cases.”
Here is his latest analysis. Take a look. It’s an interesting analysis today.
