Dr. Joe Gerald from the University of Arizona’s Mel & Enid Zuckerman College of Public Health has been Johnny On the Spot when it comes to putting together predictive modeling for Arizona ever since the very beginning. He takes several of the existing predictive models that are out there, examines the AZ model runs and does some interpretation to give the results some life.
Here’s the latest model run. I encourage you to look at the 6-page model run, but if you’re out of time, here’s what Dr. Gerald puts in his summary this week:
Current social distancing restrictions have slowed viral transmission, but not sufficiently to prevent newly reported cases, hospitalizations, and ICU utilization from increasing.
Absolute levels of community-driven viral transmission remain high as evidenced by substantial numbers of newly reported cases.
For many locales, additional social distancing restrictions are likely needed to prevent newly reported cases, hospitalizations, and ICU utilization from increasing and ultimately exceeding local health system capacity.
For all locales, lifting social distancing restrictions would likely accelerate the pace of viral transmission leading to increasing case counts and hospital utilization.
While adequate hospital capacity exists to care for some increase in severely ill patients, a higher case count will narrow our safety margin.
Growing evidence suggests that Pima County has slowed viral transmission such that newly reported cases are declining and a peak has been reached.
COVID-19 testing capacity (PCR and serology) has meaningfully increased over the past week. However, the PCR test positive rate remains above 3% indicating capacity is not adequate to meet clinical and public health demands.
