Dr. Joe Gerald just sent me his new data analysis and model run summary. Terrific work as usual. There’s more detail in this week’s report because of all the action related to both with the data and the public health policies (or lack thereof) in the last week. Here are some of the more interesting information nuggets from today’s report:
Since May 17, cases have increased 138% (3,061 to 7,286) while testing has increased by 17% (46,206 to 54,078) providing compelling evidence that increasing case counts largely reflect increased community transmission- not increased testing.
Since the week ending May 17th, the percent of PCR specimens that are positive has increased from 5.3% to 11.1% suggesting that testing capacity is not keeping pace with transmission.
From a May 22 to June 12, Covid-19 total hospitalization has increased 70% (from 1093 to 1859 occupied beds). Increases in Covid-19 general ward occupancy were greater than increases in ICU occupancy, 80% and 45%, respectively. Because of a decline in non-Covid hospitalizations, the all-cause hospital census has only increased 9% from 7173 to 7785 occupied beds. Continued increases in case counts is expected to drive additional hospitalizations for the foreseeable future.
As of June 12, 1412 (18.3%) of Arizona’s 7705 general ward beds were occupied by patients with suspected or confirmed Covid-19 infection, a 10% increase from last week. An additional 1237 (16.1%) beds remain available. Similarly, 447 (26.9%) of Arizona’s 1664 ICU beds were occupied for Covid-19 care, a 14% increase from last week.
A projection of non-surge general ward and ICU capacity suggests Arizona could reach general ward capacity sometime between in July or August assuming no mitigation efforts are instituted and past trends continue uninterrupted.
The possibility that Arizona might exceed its ICU capacity is supported by CovidActNow which shows markedly rising ICU utilization through June. A similar projection is made by the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation.
Once “normal” operating capacity is exceeded, patients will be admitted to jury-rigged settings, treated with second-line agents owing to shortages of critical resources, and cared for by nurses and physicians recruited from non-critical specialties. This is not to disparage the heroic measures these facilities and caregivers will make to ensure quality care but rather to caution against an overly idealistic view of the equivalence of surge care.
At the end of the report, Dr Gerald has a terrific analysis regarding the Governor’s June 11 Covid-19 Press Briefing. I won’t summarize this here, but it is very good. Take some time to take a peek.
