Here’s a link to Dr. Gerald’s latest analysis. As expected given the numbers and trends on the various data dashboards, the trends aren’t encouraging. At least we now have some new interventions underway (view next blog post).
Reported cases and hospitalizations, but not deaths, continue to increase at a rapid pace signaling increasing community spread. While these trends differ by geographic region, Covid-19 is widespread in Arizona (see Appendix for county data).
Absolute levels of community-driven viral transmission have never been higher as evidenced by frequent daily and weekly record-setting levels of newly reported cases.
For most locales, additional government-mandated social distancing restrictions and/or mask-wearing are urgently needed to reduce the pace of community transmission.
The nature of the outbreak is changing such that new infections are shifting towards younger, working-age adults which has important implications for hospital utilization and deaths.
Covid-related hospital utilization continues to increase while excess capacity is declining. Adequate capacity currently exists, but excess capacity could be depleted by early-to-mid July.
Some hospitals are already near or at capacity for ICU care; therefore, local conditions will provide a better indicator of capacity than state-wide trends. Stated capacity may over-estimate actual capacity for structural reasons; therefore, surge beds may be need sooner than expected.
The number of Covid-19 tests is not keeping pace with rising case counts as evidenced by increasing PCR test positive rates. Positivity rates remain >3% indicating capacity is likely inadequate to meet clinical and public health demands. Test reporting lags appear to be about the same.