Latest analysis shows that city/county face covering requirements may be slowing the acceleration of SARS CoV2 but hospital capacity still in peril
The week ending June 28 recorded 22,388 new Covid-19 cases, which is an 8% increase over last week’s revised tally of 20733 new cases, marking a grim 4-week period with 50–70% increases per week. However, this week’s increase looks to be about 30% from the previous week.
But don’t celebrate too much… absolute levels of community-driven viral transmission have never been higher as evidenced by frequent daily and weekly record-setting numbers of newly reported cases.
While still reflecting enormous growth, it’s slightly less exponential suggesting that perhaps the local face covering ordinances may be showing a moderating effect on the still steep trajectory.
PCR testing capacity continues to increase but it’s not keeping pace with viral transmission as evidenced by the very high percentage of patients testing positive which was 21.8% this past week. This figure is the worst in the nation by a wide margin and likely the highest percent positive in the world right now.
Since the end of the stay at home order, COVID-19 hospitalization has increased 243%. Increases in general ward occupancy have been greater than increases in ICU occupancy (284% versus 140%).
Non-COVID patients are being squeezed our of hospitals as evidenced by the fact that while inpatient COVID hospitalizations are up over 250% all-cause occupancy is up 12% during that time period. This trend could be a result of non-COVID patients being triaged out of the hospital system. Continued increases in case counts are expected to drive additional hospitalizations for the foreseeable future.
Note: COVID patients are more labor intensive than typical ICU patients and therefore pose a more intense drain on provider resources.
The week ending June 21st is now the week with the largest number of reported deaths. Given that case counts are continuing to increase, a larger number of deaths in the coming weeks is expected.
Arizona State University Covid-19 Modeling and Evaluation Team – July 1 Update
The ASU Modeling and Evaluation Team updated their findings last week in their July 1 Update. provided selected findings from their July 1st update. A pre-print of their work with specific model specifications and additional results is also available.
The team projects Arizona will reach 100% of existing hospital capacity in early-to-mid July absent further reductions in non-Covid hospitalizations or increased bed capacity.
