Dr. Joe Gerald just published his weekly epidemiology and hospital resource report. Needless to say, it’s not a pretty picture. Below is a summary of the results, but the full report provides the detail and some very informative graphs and charts.
Viral transmission is increasing throughout Arizona. If not slowed within the next 1 – 2 weeks, new Covid19 cases will overwhelm our capacity to provide hospital care by the end of December. New cases are being diagnosed at a rate of at least 390 cases per 100,000 residents per week. This rate is increasing by approximately 27 cases per 100,000 residents per week.
Transmission rates could be faster than measured owing to limited access to and/or lower uptake of Covid-19 testing during the Thanksgiving week. Holiday travel, commerce, and social gatherings between Thanksgiving and New Years are likely to accelerate transmission rates without additional public health interventions.
Without intervention, we are on track to experience a major humanitarian crisis during the Christmas – New Year holiday season. Hospital Covid-19 occupancy is increasing and is on course to exceed previous peaks by mid-December. It could overwhelm hospital capacity by late-December.
The fall-winter viral respiratory season plus the return of part-time residents who winter in Arizona will continue to strain hospitals capacity through January – February. Hospitals are already postponing scheduled procedures and requiring health professionals to work additional hours and assume new duties. Shortages and burn-out will degrade our capacity to provide critical care services. The test positive rate for traditional PCR testing reached 22% this week.
The growing mismatch between testing capacity and demand indicates viral transmission is growing faster than the estimate here. Covid-19 mortality continues to increase. While rates remain lower than those observed with this summer’s outbreak, cases are rising quickly. It is likely that Arizona will record >500 Covid-19 deaths per week by Christmas.