Below is a summary of Dr. Joe Gerald’s weekly epidemiology and hospital capacity update. You can view his full analysis including all the charts and graphs here. As has been the case for some weeks now, the report paints a dire picture of the pandemic in Arizona due to woefully inadequate mitigation measures.
We continue to urge Governor Ducey and Director Christ to implement evidence-based mitigation measures to slow the spread of the virus (similar to those that were implemented during the summer “pause”). However, at this point, we have no confidence that either of them support any new measures whatsoever despite the dire situation in Arizona hospitals. We expect the virus to continue to rifle through Arizona with reckless abandon until Arizona reaches herd immunity- primarily because of viral infections rather than vaccine induced immunity.
Excerpts from Dr Gerald’s weekly report below:
“The SARS-CoV-2 virus continues to rampage through Arizona. Daily cases and fatalities could double, or perhaps quadruple, before declining under the weight of natural and/or vaccine-induced immunity later this winter. However, the arrival of a more transmissible UK variant could change this calculus for the worse. Arizona’s outbreak remains appallingly bad. A bit of good fortune (or preferably policy action) is needed to gain additional time to vaccinate Arizona’s most vulnerable citizens.”
“As of January 8th, new cases were being diagnosed at a rate of 860 cases per 100,000 residents per week (Figure 11 in todays report). This rate is increasing by approximately 83 cases per 100,000 residents per week. According to the CDC, no other state is currently experiencing faster spread transmission.”
“Arizona is reporting >700 Covid-19 deaths per week (>100 per day) and this count may underestimate true fatalities by half (see Woolf, Woolf, or Weinberger). Many of these deaths were preventable if the state had more aggressively adopted evidenced-based public health practices. Arizona weekly tally of deaths ranks second behind Alabama. Last week’s leader, Rhode Island, has since dropped to 12th.”
“Hospital Covid-19 occupancy has at least temporarily plateaued at record levels this week in the ward and ICU. However, some of this could be attributable to coping mechanisms that are hidden from view.”
“Hospitals continue to postpone scheduled procedures to create additional capacity for Covid-19 patients at the expense of others with serious medical conditions. However, patients who would have been previously hospitalized are undoubtedly being treated in an outpatient setting.”
“Health professionals are being asked to work additional hours and assume duties outside their traditional scope of practice. Shortages and burn-out will degrade our capacity to provide critical care services over the coming weeks.”
“The test positivity rate for traditional nasopharyngeal PCR testing declined slightly this week, dropping from 35% to 33% positivity. This indicates viral transmission is growing more slowly than testing capacity is increasing. Nevertheless, our testing capacity is wholly inadequate to the scale of the problem and other regions.”
