Here is a link to Dr. Gerald’s new epidemiology and hospital capacity report. Below is a summary:
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This week saw a meaningful decline in Covid-19 cases which now cements the recent trends as a real decrease in viral transmission. This decline has been accompanied by reductions in hospital and ICU occupancy. While these trends are welcomed, the absolute level of SARS-CoV-2 virus transmission remains exceptionally high, about on par with those of the summer peak.
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As of January 31st, new cases were being diagnosed at a rate of 412 cases per 100,000 residents per week. Arizona now has the 5th highest viral transmission rate according to the CDC. Overall, Arizona remains the 6th hardest hit state.
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Hospital Covid-19 occupancy is declining in the ward and ICU. However, access to care for Covid-19 and non-Covid patients remains restricted with only limited numbers of medically necessary non-Covid procedures being scheduled.
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So far, 1.9% of Arizona residents have received at least 2-doses of vaccine while 6.8% have received at least 1-dose. To date, Arizona has administered about 65% of its delivered doses. Arizona vaccination roll-out ranks in the bottom half of US states.
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Arizona is still reporting large number of weekly deaths and this count may considerably underestimate true fatalities (see Woolf, Woolf, or Weinberger). Many of these deaths were preventable had the state adopted more aggressive public health practices.
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AZPHA released a report on all-cause mortality during the Covid-19 pandemic. Briefly, all-cause mortality was 23% higher in 2020 with July and December being outliers with 64% and 61% higher mortality, respectively. This translates into approximately 15,000 excess deaths.
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AzPHA also released a report examining the leading causes of deaths in Arizona over time. In brief, the main finding is that Covid-19 ranks as the leading cause of death in Arizona since the pandemic began.
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AzPHA also released a report that describes the chronological course of the Covid-19 outbreak in Arizona and the state’s response or lack thereof.
