Dr. Gerald released his weekly Epidemiology and Hospital Capacity report over the weekend. You can view the full report here. There is some encouraging news, but absolute levels of transmission and test positivity remain 2 -3X higher than recommended for in-person instructional activities (see Arizona Department of Health Services Benchmarks). However, as you know, the ADHS no longer supports their own benchmarks and they are really cosmetic at this point- as they have no influence on actual policy.
With sustained declines in viral transmission and hospital occupancy, Arizona has transitioned from a period of crisis to one of elevated risk. With continued improvements being forecast over the next 4 weeks, hospital capacity is adequate to meet Arizona’s most critical needs.
With continued improvements being forecast over the next 4 weeks, hospital capacity is adequate to meet Arizona’s most critical needs. Nevertheless, it will be many months before the backlog of non-Covid care can be fully addressed.
Arizona is still reporting large number of weekly deaths and this count may considerably underestimate true fatalities (see Woolf, Woolf, or Weinberger). The week ending January 17th will likely be Arizona’s deadliest with approximately 1000 deaths once all are made known.. Arizona’s weekly tally of deaths ranks it 4th in the nation. Overall, we rank 8th since the outbreak began.
