Here is a summary of this week’s epi report by Dr. Gerald. His full report includes an in-depth look at the policy decision to open schools for in-person instruction.
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This week saw a seventh straight week of meaningful declines in Covid-19 cases and hospital occupancy. In some communities, absolute levels of SARS-CoV-2 viral transmission have fallen below the 100 new cases per 100,000 residents per week threshold.
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As of February 28th, new cases were being diagnosed at a rate of 94 cases per 100,000 residents per week. This rate is declining by 43 cases per 100,000 residents per week.
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Compared to last week, the pace at which conditions improved quickened this week; however, improvements will likely slow over the coming weeks.
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The test positivity rate for traditional nasopharyngeal PCR testing has reached 10% which is near the recommended 5 – 10% for optimal public health practice.
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In some communities, absolute levels of transmission and test positivity have reached levels that warrant a return to in-person instruction using a hybrid mode or reduced attendance (see CDC Recommended Mitigation Strategies for K – 12 Learning Modes).
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Hospital Covid-19 occupancy continues to decline in the ward and ICU. Access to care however, remains somewhat restricted as the backlog of medically necessary non-Covid procedures is addressed.
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Arizona is still reporting a large number of weekly deaths and this count may underestimate true fatalities. The week ending January 17th will be Arizona’s deadliest with >1000 deaths. Arizona’s weekly tally of deaths ranks it 8th in the nation while its overall rank remains 6 th since the outbreak began.
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According to the CDC, 11.7% of Arizona adults have received at least 2-doses of vaccine while another 11.8% have received 1-dose. The ADHS Dashboard is reporting slightly higher levels. To date, Arizona has administered 78% of its delivered doses.
