Dr. Gerald just published his weekly epidemiology and hospital capacity report – and it’s not good news. Take a look at the epi curves among persons of all age groups in today’s report. Very steep epi curves in all populations below age 65. This week, he breaks down the cases among kids in 5 categories this week (less than 5, 6-10, 11-14 and 15-20 years old). All are increasing at a steep clip. Percent positivity is up to 20%! Not good. His summary is below- but as always I encourage you to read the full report:
This past week saw another marked increase in viral transmission. Arizona is now experiencing high levels of transmission that could be sustained for weeks to come. Unlike my previous assumption – roughly counterbalanced forces – it appears that total immunity is still insufficient to avert another surge in the presence of the more transmissible Delta variant.
As of July 21st, new cases were being diagnosed at a rate of 108 cases per 100,000 residents per week. The rate is increasing at 27 cases per 100,000 residents per week. Another wave of cases and hospitalizations, most likely caused by the increasing prevalence of the Delta variant, seems almost certain. The Delta variant now accounts for about 75% of all cases. Vaccination remains the most important public health priority to reduce viral transmission and severe illness.
With this marked acceleration in transmission, mandating masks in indoor spaces and limiting large gatherings is warranted to reduce transmission in public settings.
Unfortunately, it seems unlikely that state policymakers will take action to protect public safety, either by allowing vaccination mandates (e.g., school attendance), indoor mask mandates (e.g., schools), or targeted business restrictions. Individual action alone is unlikely to stem the tide unless those most resistant to vaccination and mask-wearing voluntarily change their behaviors.
Hospital COVID-19 occupancy is increasing in the ward and ICU. COVID-19 occupancy is likely to exceed 10% of all beds for at least several weeks, if not considerably longer. Access to care remains somewhat restricted as overall occupancy remains unseasonably high at 85%.
Arizona Covid-19 fatality counts are now about 50 deaths per week but the number of deaths should increase over the coming weeks as case counts increase. The number of deaths could exceed 100 per week by the middle-to-end of August.
According to the CDC, 55% of Arizona adults have received at least 2-doses of vaccine while another 9% have received 1-dose. Arizona passed peak vaccination rates in early April and these rates continue to erode. Despite evidence of limited immune escape to the Delta variant, especially before completion of the full vaccination sequence, vaccination continues to provide extraordinarily high levels of protection from infection and severe illness.
With inadequate vaccination uptake, eliminating COVID-19 is no longer a plausible public health policy goal. COVID-19 is almost certain to become an endemic disease with varying temporal and geographic implications. Fortunately, vaccination will remain a viable disease control strategy offering a high degree of protection to those willing to accept them.