DECISIONS BY GOVERNOR DUCEY CONTINUE TO EXACERBATE THE EPIDEMIC
BELOW IS A SUMMARY OF DR. GERALD’S WEEKLY EPIDEMIOLOGICAL & HOSPITAL CAPACITY REPORT VIEW THE FULL REPORT HERE
Arizona is experiencing high and rapidly increasing levels of community transmission that will be sustained to create another surge of cases and hospitalizations as big as the summer of 2020. While I am hopeful we will not reach the levels seen in the winter of 2021, the experience of other states (e.g., Louisiana) combined with inaction of our local and state officials suggests this may be wishful thinking.
As of August 8th, new cases were being diagnosed at a rate of 255 cases per 100,000 residents per week. The rate was increasing at 59 cases per 100,000 residents per week. Another wave of cases and hospitalizations caused by the Delta variant is now certain; the only question remaining is just how big.
Vaccination remains the most important public health priority to reduce viral transmission and severe illness over the long-term; however, in the short-term only mask mandates, restrictions on indoor gatherings in public settings, and targeted business restrictions will reduce transmission we are now experiencing.
Resumption of in-person instruction in K – 12 schools now, and universities in the coming weeks, will lead to frequent school-associated outbreaks and contribute to accelerating community transmission. Vaccine and mask mandates along with weekly surveillance testing, adequate ventilation, and physical distancing is required to stave-off a worst-case scenario in schools.
Hospital COVID-19 occupancy is increasing and is likely to exceed 20% of all beds in the general ward and 25% of beds in the ICU for many weeks. Access to care is becoming more restricted as COVID-19 occupancy is increasing. Expect delays in elective procedures to once again mount.
There is no evidence that existing vaccination levels will meaningfully blunt the impact of community transmission on hospitals. Hospitals should (and likely are) preparing for another meaningful surge that will strain staffing in critical care areas and lead to critical shortages.
Arizona is now experiencing >100 deaths per week. This amount will increase in the coming weeks and will almost certainly reach 300 per week by the end of August.
According to the CDC, 56% of Arizona adults have received at least 2-doses of vaccine while another 10% have received 1-dose. In the face of the Delta variant, this is wholly insufficient.
Despite evidence of limited immune escape to the Delta variant, especially before completion of the full vaccination sequence, vaccination continues to provide extraordinarily high levels of protection from severe illness.
The CDC revised its mask guidance for vaccinated individuals in part due to a large outbreak in Massachusetts where the majority of cases was among fully vaccinated residents. Fully vaccinated individuals should mask when indoors in public spaces where community transmission is high or substantial. If exposed to a known case, individuals should be tested in 3 – 5 days regardless of symptoms and wear a mask for 14 days post-exposure.
