View Dr. Gerald’s Final COVID Epidemiology Update (March 5, 2022)
Dr. Joe Gerald MD, PhD just published his final weekly epidemiology and hospital occupancy report. He’s been publishing these weekly for the last 2 years, providing the people of Arizona, journalists and policymakers refined data to inform their activities and to make policy decisions.
Dr. Gerald’s work has been essential and have been used to make policy and intervention decisions by county health departments, city governments, the judicial branch, K-12 schools, universities, community colleges, private businesses, non-profits, and private businesses & venues. His work has been essential for those of us doing advocacy.Journalists across Arizona have used Dr. Gerald’s work to inform their reporting (helping them cut through the misinformation & spin coming from the governor, his staff & state health department directors). By doing so, his work was essential in keeping the people of Arizona to keep informed about what was really happening.
Dr. Gerald… the people of Arizona salute you!
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Here’s introductory information from Dr. Gerald summarizing his final weekly report:
Good afternoon, all…
We continue to experience rapidly improving COVID-19 conditions. Arizona should fall below the 50 cases per 100K residents per week threshold in mid-March. A few counties may lag behind, so there will be some geographic differences. All-in-all, nothing but good news on the short-term horizon. I think the next opportunities for trouble will be May/June with the summer heat disrupting social behaviors, then August with resumption of K -12 and universities, and most likely November/December with the typical respiratory seasonal pattern.
Of course, a new variant could arise as well. While new outbreaks are expected, my hope is that we’ll see more muted seasonal patterns but that is not guaranteed.
A few things from this week. We’re getting a better idea of what the new ADHS Dashboard is going to look like after the change to weekly updating. Could be some hiccups before things get ironed out. I noticed the tally of cumulative deaths does not seem to be updating. Also, there appears to be considerable hospital non-reporting (~15%). Since the change, the total number of ward beds is down about 1200 and the total number of ICU beds is down about 240. The COVID-19 count occupancy will be more impacted than the percent occupancy. If non-reporting becomes worse, then non-response bias could be an issue for the new CDC Community Levels. Just keep an eye on it.
We’re almost certain to see more COVID-19 deaths from October 2021 – March 2022 than we did in the same period last year despite much greater vaccination and acquired immunity (See report Appendix). As it turns out, mooning COVID-19 before it was done left us with our pants down. The lack of a concerted, consistent, organized, effective policies to achieve high levels of vaccine immunity and widespread adoption of mitigation practices led us to this grim milestone. Not surprising, but disappointing and disillusioning.
Relatively low third-dose booster uptake, low levels of prior infection, and waning vaccine immunity among the elderly may lead to higher than expected hospitalizations and deaths in the coming months. Not to a degree that will stress hospitals but rather a lingering tale of woe to this most recent pandemic wave. For those >50 years who haven’t obtained a third shot booster, I would recommend doing so even though conditions are improving.
I want to thank everyone for their support over the past 2 years. Some specific mentions include my colleague Patrick Wightman who has steadfastly manhandled the data from ADHS. Also, a shout-out to Rob Bailey and Tim Flood at ADHS who have organized and overseen the work of our tri-university modeling group. Without them, our reports would not have been possible. They have done an incredible job managing, integrating, and distributing the myriad of data streams. Much thanks!!
Also to my UA, ASU, and NAU colleagues who have done their own work plus providing me ideas/suggestions for my reports. Of course, locally – Terry Cullen and Francisco Garcia who have helped with data and insights from Pima County. To the ICU/critical care physicians at Banner University Medical Center who have allowed me to listen in to their twice weekly COVID-19 huddles and kept me apprised of workload and clinical trends. Also, thanks to the MEZCOPH IT and media relations folks who have helped distribute and archive these reports. I’m sure there are others – I apologize for not recognizing your contributions.
This is the last planned report – so thank you to my readers for allowing me some of your precious time each week. I’m going to give a bit more free time.
Joe
Joe K. Gerald, MD, PhD
Associate Professor of Public Health Policy and Management
The Mel and Enid Zuckerman College of Public Health
The University of Arizona
