The revision was necessary because prior estimates have already been outpaced by recent data
Less than a week ago the ASU collaborative predictive modeling team released their most recent model. You can read about those results in my blog post from last weekend. Since that time, the number of new cases and the hospitalization trends have accelerated so they decided to update their model upward.
Here’s is a PowerPoint with those most recent results. The updated model results show that ICU and med-surg bed capacity is reached in early December now (the model from last week placed that estimate between December 13 and 22nd).
Policy responses to prevent or deal with the looming capacity crisis from the 9th Floor of 1700 West Washington & the 5th Floor of 150 N. 18th Avenue (my old office):
Crickets.
