Last Wednesday the U.S. House of Representatives passed a Republican-led budget resolution (216–214) setting the stage for large Medicaid cuts.
While last week’s resolution doesn’t explicitly target Medicaid, it tells the House Energy & Commerce Committee to find $880B in cuts over the next decade—most of which will need to come from Medicaid because that’s basically the only place the Committee can find that level of cuts (Medicare and Social Security are supposedly off the table).
When enacted, these cuts will impact over 79M Americans who rely on Medicaid and the Children’s Health Insurance Program, including about 550,000 people in Arizona (mostly ‘childless adults’).
Most likely the way they’ll do it is by implementing a per capita funding cap and reducing the federal match rate for Medicaid expansion population to 65% from the current 90%.
Arizona is a ‘trigger state’ – so as soon as the federal contribution for ‘childless adults’ drops below 80% 550,000 Arizonans will immediately be kicked off AHCCCS.
Arizona’s Medicaid on the Brink: 550,000 May Lose AHCCCS Health Insurance Amid Federal Cuts
The resolution also allows for up to $4.5 trillion in tax cuts for rich people and raises the debt ceiling by $4 trillion.
The Senate’s version of the budget resolution differs, instructing committees to increase deficits by $5.8 trillion without clear implications for Medicaid cuts.
The two chambers now need to negotiate and come up with a compromise.
If the House resolution is also passed by the Senate and implemented, it will cause big reductions in Medicaid eligibility and kick 550,000 people off AHCCCS – disproportionately impacting rural Arizona – which incidentally voted for Mr. Trump by a wide margin.
New Fiscal Analysis: The Economic Impact of Federal Medicaid Cuts in Arizona
