All scenarios show adequate hospital capacity
The ADHS published a modeling report this week that provides state-specific projections of new cases and deaths based on the best available science and Arizona case data. The report produces daily counts for infected individuals, ICU use, and deaths for five different scenarios.
It provides scenario-based estimates of resource needs for hospital beds, ICU beds, and ventilators but doesn’t include a capacity assessment. A trip to the new ADHS Dashboard reveals that peak use in all of the AZ model scenarios are well below our existing capacity.
These modeling results build on the growing model results that suggest we are fine with our current hospital capacity. Here’s Dr.Gerald’s latest model result summary, always a good source of information. Models that are well respected are included in Dr. Gerald’s work include the IHME Model developed by the University of Washington and the University of Texas Modeling Consortium which includes a GPS tool that quantifies the effectiveness of social distancing measures.
