If you read our late-March update—Committee Deadlines Hit, Floor Action Accelerates, and Budget Negotiations Start—we said we were in the “late third quarter” of the legislative session. Fast forward a few weeks, and now we’re at the two-minute warning.

Arizona’s “100-day session” is more of a suggestion than a rule, especially with divided government. Legislature leaders can keep things going, and they often do, but less so on election years like this.

Almost all committees are done (except for Rules). What’s left is Committee of the Whole amendments, and third read (final floor) votes.

Just like we predicted, budget negotiations have taken center stage, and they’ve hit the phase where informal talks break down followed by pressure tactics to force real negotiations.

The Governor, like most of those before her, told the legislature she’ll veto everything that comes to her until a budget deal is done. This isn’t a new strategy… it’s standard operating procedure. Governors from Fife Symington forward have used the same play. It’s a way to force leadership to stop messing around and finish the budget.

Until there’s a budget agreement, the rest of the legislative agenda is effectively frozen. Bills that made it through committees and are sitting on deck for third read in suspended animation.

Once the budget deal comes together (it will) you’ll see a rapid series of floor votes as lawmakers clear the backlog and send a wave of bills to the Governor.

One added wrinkle this year is whether the state aligns with federal tax changes under HR1, which could complicate and slow negotiations even more.

Whether any agency directors will get confirmation is unclear. Hoffman’s Director Nomination Committee has hardly met at all this session – although Ruvjit “Ruby” Dhillon-Williams is up in that committee for the Department of Housing job next week (4/20).

Will Debbie Johnston at ADHS or Roberta Harrison at AHCCCS get hearings? We don’t know.