COVID-19 Healthcare Demand Projections: Arizona

Esma Gel, Megan Jehn, Timothy Lant, Anna Muldoon, Trisalyn Nelson, Heather M Ross

The ASU Biodesign Institute team has published their most recent Arizona-specific model using a framework that ties disease surveillance with the future burden on Arizona’s healthcare system. Their framework accounts for multiple COVID-19 patient outcomes and the observed time delay in epidemiological findings following public policy decisions.

Lots to unpack here. Pay particular attention to Section 3.2 on pages 11 and 12, which runs through scenarios that simulate the policy decisions made last week. It’s challenging to put such a sophisticated analysis in to a succinct summary – but basically- the best modeling fit for the existing data trends, along with modifying transmission as a result of the expiration of the stay at home order (and without including seasonal effects- if any) puts us on a track for a big increase in cases and new hospitalizations in early June.

Not good. Let’s cross our fingers that people will for the most part behave responsibly and the chance in transmission will be less than in the model. Also, lets cross our fingers that there will be some kind of modifying seasonal effect.