Disclaimer: COVID-19 modeling projections are not intended to be predictions or quantitative guesses about what may happen in the mid-range (weeks-to-months) or long-term (months-to-years). They are intended to reflect current trends projected into the future and the relative effects of changes in transmission, social distancing, weather sensitivity, current burden of disease and other epidemiological factors. As more testing and tracing data come online, and policies and behaviors change, the estimates will change.
Summary:
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When we model the rise in Arizona case counts our conclusion is that it is due to evidence of increased community transmission. This model estimates a 40% increase in transmission since May 11 (May 11-May 24). The model predicts a future exponential growth curve of COVID-19 cases going forward if this transmission rate persists, a very concerning public health trend.
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Decreasing the transmission rate and community spread of COVID-19 depends on increasing the adherence to strict social distancing, and particularly the wearing of masks. ASU recognizes the importance of wearing masks in public to reduce the spread of COVID-19.
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Our modeling predicts that, unless further adherence to non-pharmaceutical interventions can be made, the COVID case counts, hospitalizations and ICU bed use will continue to increase. How much and how soon is still uncertain. Very small errors in data can result in large uncertainties in the final projection numbers. We will know more in the weeks ahead as testing, tracing and hospital data continue.
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The state should continue to anticipate and prepare for the increased burden on its health care systems. If model predictions are realized, Arizona may have exhausted its available bed supply by late June/early July. At that point, capacity will need to be increased by putting beds in “surge capacity” areas to meet the growing demand.
You can view their full product at: https://biodesign.asu.edu/research/clinical-testing/critical-covid-19-trends
