Dr. Gerald just finished this week’s epidemiology update for AZ. Below is a summary- and here’s the full report.
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The previously observed bifurcation in Arizona’s Covid-19 outbreak between those aged 15 – 24 years and everyone else has now converged into a single trend marked by slowly increasing viral transmission among all age groups.
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Community-driven viral transmission is now equivalent to that seen during the last week of May (4,800 weekly cases) when Arizona was only 4 weeks away from its summer peak (27,800 weekly cases).
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Mask-wearing ordinances will be needed for the foreseeable future to mitigate the spread of Covid-19.
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Additional measures are now needed to address “quarantine fatigue” before the viral respiratory season which is fast approaching.
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Recent increases in Covid-related hospital utilization are unlikely to be attributable to hospital reporting compliance. Instead, rising occupancy is almost certainly due to increasing transmission among vulnerable groups.
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While adequate excess capacity remains available in ward and ICU beds for the near future, the safety margin is now declining and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future.
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While current Covid-19 test capacity is adequate as evidenced by quick turn-around for PCR results and a PCR test positivity of 5 – 6%, test positivity for traditional PCR testing is now slowly trending up along with new case rates.
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Covid-19 mortality continues to decline; however, this trend is likely to halt or reverse by the end of the month if current trends continue unabated.
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If current trends are not reversed, Arizona is on track to experience a major resurgence during the Thanksgiving – Christmas – New Year holidays.
