One of our newest AzPHA members, Allan N. Williams, MPH, PhD (who recently retired as an epidemiologist at the Minnesota Department of Health) analyzed ADHS vital statistics data and developed our newest epidemiology report entitled: “How Do COVID-19 Death Rates Compare to the 15 Leading Causes of Death in Arizona?”
Not surprisingly, the report found that COVID-19 has been the leading cause of death in Arizona during the pandemic (Nationally, it has been the 3rd third leading cause of death). The fact that COVID deaths are currently comparable in prevalence to our two long-standing major killers – heart disease and cancer – is a sobering statistic and represents a deadly failure to implement evidence based interventions to better manage the pandemic in Arizona. Furthermore, the toll from COVID-19 is likely to be considerably higher than the currently reported numbers.
As previously noted in our January 24, 2021 AzPHA Report 2020 All-Cause Mortality Trends in Arizona During the COVID-19 Pandemic and in recent media (Arizona Republic, Feb. 1, 2021 “Arizona Deaths Rose 25% in 2020”), preliminary 2020 mortality data show a significant increase (14,972 additional deaths) in overall deaths compared to 2019. While most of this increase is clearly attributable to COVID-19 deaths, the AzPHA mortality analysis indicated that some 3,444 of the excess deaths were not reported as COVID-19 deaths.
This is consistent with estimates indicating that 35% of COVID-19 deaths are unreported. It is also possible that deferral of care for serious non-COVID-19 medical conditions or reduced screenings during the pandemic also account for a portion of the non-COVID-19 excess.
While there is room for optimism as vaccinations slowly ramp up and new vaccines are now imminent, there is at the same time growing concern about the rapid spread of more transmissible variants of the SARS-CoV-2 virus and whether current vaccines will be less effective against these variants. Unfortunately, COVID-19 will remain a significant cause of death well into 2021.
A huge thanks to Dr. Williams for his work bringing this important information to light.
