Takeaways from Dr. Gerald’s weekly analysis of the epidemiology and hospital capacity report:
This week saw a fifth straight week of meaningful declines in Covid-19 cases and hospital occupancy. Nevertheless, absolute levels of SARS-CoV-2 viral transmission remain above the 100 new cases per 100,000 residents per week threshold which marks elevated risk.
As of February 14th, new cases were being diagnosed at a rate of 158 cases per 100,000 residents per week (Figure 10 below). This rate is declining by 86 cases per 100,000 residents per week. Despite this improvement, Arizona has the 19th highest viral transmission rate in the US according to the CDC. Overall, Arizona remains the 6th hardest hit state in terms of cases identified.
While residents and businesses should continue to follow the recommended public health mitigation efforts, normalization of lower risk activities will be reasonable once case rates fall below 100 new diagnoses per 100,000 residents per week.
Hospital Covid-19 occupancy is declining in the ward and ICU. However, access to care remains restricted with only limited numbers of medically necessary non-Covid procedures being scheduled.
According to the CDC, 4.9% of Arizona residents have received at least 2-doses of vaccine while another 9.8% have received 1-dose. The ADHS Dashboard is reporting slightly higher levels. To date, Arizona has administered 84% of its delivered doses. Arizona vaccination roll-out ranks in the bottom half of US states.
Many have asked about herd immunity and the risk of a spring outbreak. While I believe this winter’s outbreak will be Arizona’s largest, a smaller wave is possible this spring. However, a spring wave should it occur will pose a lesser threat as most of those at risk of hospitalization and death will have been vaccinated. For this reason, the short-term outlook remains favorable.
