Dr Gerald’s Weekly Epi & Hospital Report

This week saw a 10th week of meaningful declines in Covid-19 cases and hospital occupancy. Absolute levels of SARS-CoV-2 viral transmission are below 50 new cases per 100,000 residents per week threshold in many Arizona counties.

As of March 21st, new cases were being diagnosed at a rate of 53 cases per 100,000 residents per week. This rate is declining by 8 cases per 100,000 residents per week.

The test positivity rate for traditional PCR testing is now <10% which is within the recommended 5 – 10% range for optimal public health practice.

In all communities, absolute levels of transmission and test positivity have reached levels that warrant a return to in-person instruction using a hybrid mode or reduced attendance.

Hospital Covid-19 occupancy continues to decline in the ward and ICU. Access to care however, remains somewhat restricted as the backlog of medically necessary non-Covid procedures is addressed.

Arizona is still reporting a large number of weekly deaths and this count may underestimate true fatalities. The week ending January 17th will be Arizona’s deadliest with >1000 deaths.

According to the CDC, 20.4% of Arizona adults have received at least 2-doses of vaccine while another 14.5% have received 1-dose. The ADHS Dashboard is reporting slightly higher levels. 

Will’s Editorial Note: Governor Ducey and Director Christ are Arizona are now conducting a natural experiment with the people of Arizona as all required mitigation measures have now been eliminated. Within a couple of weeks we will see the results of that experiment. it will be interesting to follow the results in Dr. Gerald’s subsequent reports.