VIEW THIS WEEK’S FULL REPORT
Summary from Dr. Gerald’s Report: This past week saw another marked increase in viral transmission. Arizona is now experiencing high levels of transmission that will be sustained for weeks to come. This outbreak will almost certainly be as big as the one experienced in summer of 2020. While I am optimistic it will not reach the levels seen in the winter of 2021, the experience of other similar states (e.g., Louisiana, Florida, and Texas) suggests this could be wishful thinking.
As of August 1st, new cases were being diagnosed at a rate of 195 cases per 100,000 residents per week. The rate is increasing at 51 cases per 100,000 residents per week. Another wave of cases and hospitalizations, caused by the increasing prevalence of the Delta variant is now certain. The Delta variant now accounts for >75% of all cases.
Resumption of in-person instruction in K – 12 schools and universities in August will lead to frequent school-associated outbreaks and will undoubtedly increase community transmission without vaccine or mask mandates, weekly surveillance testing, and adequate ventilation. The transmissibility of the Delta variant combined with high levels of transmission among adults will essentially force transmission among children.
Hospital COVID-19 occupancy is increasing and is likely to exceed 15% of all beds in the general ward and 20% of beds in the ICU for many weeks. Access to care remains somewhat restricted as occupancy remains unseasonably high. Once again, elective procedures are likely to be postponed. Hospitals should (and likely are) preparing for another meaningful surge that will strain staffing in critical care areas.
Current levels of hospital and ICU occupancy are similar to or slightly ahead of those of the winter 2021 outbreak. Current community transmission is impacting hospitals similarly to how it did this past winter despite a high degree of vaccine update among those >65 years. We should not hold a false sense of security that this outbreak will necessarily have less impact on our already overburdened hospital system.
Arizona is now experiencing 50 deaths per week. This amount will increase in the coming weeks and will almost certainly exceed 100 per week by the end of August.