The federal budget bill HR1 doesn’t just slash critical safety net programs like Medicaid and food assistance, it damages public health by dismantling the clean energy development incentives that will make electricity process even higher.
The bill ends a wide range of clean energy tax credits that have supported investment in wind, solar, and energy-efficient technologies. These credits didn’t just help homeowners go solar, they incentivized larger-scale clean energy projects that would have expanded Arizona’s electricity supply, lowered prices, and created thousands of jobs.
Now, with those incentives gone, electricity prices are set to rise faster than they otherwise would have, and lower-income households will be hit hardest.
Electricity is the second-largest household expense for low-income families, behind only rent—and it ranks higher than food. The nonpartisan Energy Innovation Policy & Technology analysis finds that, thanks to HR1, electricity prices in Arizona will increase much faster than they otherwise would have.
Electricity Price Impacts of HR1 In Arizona
Assessing Impacts Of HR1 On U.S. Energy Costs, Jobs, Health, Emissions
Here’s what’s coming because of HR1:
- Wholesale electricity prices in Arizona are forecast to increase 18% by 2030 beyond what they otherwise would have risen, and 69% by 2035.
- Arizona households could see $140 higher electricity bills each year by 2030, and $220 more by 2035 – that’s in addition to the hikes that would already have been projected to occur without HR1.
- Commercial and industrial electricity users will also have price hikes; costs they will pass on to customers.
Why the increase in electricity prices under HR1? Arizona is expected to lose 10 gigawatts of electricity generation capacity by 2035 due to HR1’s rollback of clean energy tax credits. For low-income families, these rising utility bills have a ripple effect. Many will face choices between paying the rent, or keeping the A/C on, or buy groceries.
When electricity bills outpace even food costs, the social determinants of health start are harmed. Access to utilities is as vital to health as access to doctors. Losing that access through disconnection, eviction, or constant stress leads to chronic stress and mental health decline, increased risk of heat-related illness and respiratory conditions, poor developmental outcomes in children as families are forced into survival mode.
That’s capacity that would have kept prices down. Instead, utilities like APS will have every excuse to push prices even higher, especially since they at least currently have a super-compliant regulator (the ACC).
APS Rate Hikes & the Corporation Commission’s Industry Capture are Undermining Health – AZ Public Health Association
And it’s not just households that will suffer. EIPT forecasts $3.9B in lost GDP and up to 20,000 clean energy jobs lost in Arizona by 2035 due to HR1. That’s fewer employment opportunities and less economic resilience especially in rural and underserved communities.
This is a textbook case of how energy policy becomes health policy.
By stripping clean energy incentives, HR1 threatens not just our climate goals but the stability and health of Arizona families. It’s a silent crisis—until the bills come due.
