A new serology (antibody) study conducted in Santa Clara County suggests that COVID infections are 25 to 50 times higher than the number of confirmed cases. During the study period, SC county had 1870 cases and 73 deaths reported among its 1.7 million residents. The serology study estimated that 2.5% – 4.2% of county residents have been infected – which converts to between 48,000 – 81,000 total infections… exceeding the number of known cases by a factor of 25–50.
If confirmed, this would suggest the overall infection fatality ratio would be approximately 0.1 – 0.2%, much lower than the current overall estimate.
Note:
The University of Arizona will begin providing antibody tests for 250,000 health care professionals and first responders who are on the front lines in the battle against COVID-19. The UA will administer the antibody tests to check for antibodies through an individual’s blood sample to determine if they were exposed to COVID-19, had the virus and recovered.
I didn’t see when this actual work will begin, but that’s probably because there will be some type of approval that needs to happen first. These results will be the first good look we have into where we really are when it comes to herd immunity here in AZ.
