We just received Dr. Gerald’s latest COVID analysis. For the first time in many weeks there are some encouraging signs. New cases have stabilized (albeit at a very high level). Likewise, the percent positive drifted downward slightly in the last week. Hospitalizations for COVID also stabilized (although at extremely high levels). Take home for this week is at least things didn’t get worse- so by that standard- things got a little better.

For the week ending July 12th, Arizona recorded 15,160 new Covid-19 cases. However, this undercounts the actual number of new cases because as 50% of PCR results take more than 5 days to be reported. For example, last week’s tally has been revised up by 32% because of slow turn-around times.

The percent of patients testing positive drifted down slightly – going from 23% the week ending July 5 to 19% the week ending July 12. A declining test positive percentage in the face of declining testing capacity lends additional evidence that viral transmission is slowing in response to the public’s adherence with new face mask ordinances, additional business restrictions, and other recommended health behaviors.

On the hospitalization front, total Covid-19 hospitalization increased 311% from 1093 to 4487 occupied beds between May 22 and July 13. The good news is that In the last week total Covid-19 hospitalizations increased only 1% (going from 4384 to 4410 occupied beds). If the trend continues hospitals should see stabilizing or declining admissions over the coming weeks.

While these leading and contemporary indicators are stabilizing- no such luck for deaths. The week ending July 5th is now the week with the largest number of Covid-19 deaths (339). Because deaths lag new cases by about 2 weeks, deaths will continue to increase for the next week or two before moderating or declining.