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Dr. Joe Gerald did a new COVID model run analysis this week. Lots of interesting new graphs. You can check out the full 8 page report here. Below is his summary of the analysis for this week:

Now that social distancing restrictions have been lifted, a greater frequency and intensity of human interactions will tend to facilitate viral spread. If this scenario is realized, increases in newly reported cases, hospitalizations, and ICU utilization would be detectable by early June.

o Absolute levels of community-driven viral transmission remain high as evidenced by substantial numbers of newly reported cases.

o For many locales, social distancing restrictions are likely needed to prevent reported cases, hospitalizations, and ICU utilization from increasing. o Hospital utilization has slowly increased over the past 4 – 6 weeks for COVID and non-COVID related care with excess capacity declining from approximately 30% to 15%. While adequate capacity exists to care for some increase in severely ill patients, additional viral spread will narrow that safety margin.

COVID-19 testing capacity (PCR and serology) has meaningfully increased over the past several weeks; however, the PCR test positive rate remains above 3% indicating capacity is not adequate to meet clinical and public health demands. This 3% target reflects testing practices in countries that had a more robust public health response and were more effective in controlling viral spread.

Several important changes have occurred in the past week that still make it difficult to assess the underlying trends in viral transmission. First, testing capacity has expanded identifying milder disease that would have previously remained undiagnosed. Second, ADHS added COVID-relevant causes of death from death certificates to the case definition of COVID deaths. Lastly, Arizona’s “stay-at-home” order expired May 15 likely increasing social interactions with the potential to transmit infection.

Arizona, AzPHA, and so many of us lost a good friend and mentor this week. Pete Wertheim passed away yesterday after courageously facing brain cancer. We will all miss Pete, his smile, sense of humor, his easy way, and his dedication to good solid public policy.

Pete was a long-time sustaining member of AzPHA, served on the Board of Directors and as Board President in 2011. Pete worked really hard to improve AzPHA’s business and other processes – working closely with AzPHA Executive Director Jennifer Bonnet to build us into the organization that we are today. Here’s what Jennifer shared about Pete…

“I remember Pete for “how” he accomplished rather than “what.” He worked with such warmth and humor that everyone felt welcome and engaged around him. We worked together on many tough legislative issues, yet,  I am recalling our more casual exchanges at a pub with colleagues after a long day at work.”

Many of you worked with Pete professionally and personally…  and you know that Pete was just so authentic and just such an all around good guy. He was committed to good public policy and transparency and was always on the lookout to set policy that would work effectively in the long run. He called things out when he saw things that were sneaky, inefficient, or just plain wacky. He knew and taught us that the devil was in the details.

I got to know Pete really well when he was the Chief Legislative Liaison for the ADHS during the time when Susan Gerard was the Director. Pete was just so good at tracking all the bills and always keeping us informed. He taught us to dive into the details of bills to figure out what effect they might have on the people.

Pete and Susan worked hard to get the financing needed to build a new Forensic Unit at the Arizona State Hospital.  His work paid off in 2008 when the agency was able to get funding for the new facility just before the recession. The former ASH Wick Units were many decades old (built in the early 60s) and were just inconsistent with providing a safe and therapeutic environment.

It was challenging getting 10’s of millions of dollars from the legislature for a new forensic unit, but Pete didn’t give up- he just worked so hard to get that important facility funded. What did it was the way he could connect with legislators that made it happen.

Barb Fanning, a good friend of Pete and co-worker during his time at the ADHS put it this way… 

“Pete was one of the most genuine people I have ever known. He loved his work and had an unrivaled work ethic. He also brought a refreshing sincerity to all of his relationships, both personal and professional – everyone who knew Pete adored him. The healthcare industry in Arizona is better because of him, but the people who work in it are missing a great advocate and a dear friend.”

Most recently Pete served for several years as the Executive Director for the Arizona Osteopathic Medical Association. Before that, he worked for a year as the Communication and Public Affairs chief for the City of Prescott. He started that job practically the same week as the devastating Yarnell fire.

His career also included working as the VP for Communications and the Arizona Hospital and Healthcare Association. His early career was as a Legislative Research Analyst and Policy Advisor for the Arizona House of Representatives. That’s where he really refined his policy chops.

But most of all…  Pete was just a really good person. Always there with an easy smile and an interesting story.  A good friend.  We’ll all miss him.

You’ll want to bookmark it

The ASU Biodesign Institute team has developed and posted a nifty Critical COVID-19 Trends website. You should bookmark it.

There are so many interesting data trends on the site including: 1) case trends by county; 2) daily positive test trends; 2) the percent of PCR test that are positive by day; 3) the new vs. total cases by county; and 4) the total deaths vs. total cases by county. Most of the data on this ASU site is info that you won’t be able to find on the ADHS Data Dashboard.

The total deaths vs. total cases graph shows you which counties are suffering with more severe outcomes. The percent positive of PCR tests by day shows you the daily trend in percent positives- which is really important because a determining point for moving to the next Phase of opening is the 14-day trend in the number of positive PCR tests divided by the total number of PCR tests done.

For example, the ADHS data dashboard shows the percent positive of the laboratory test results by the week….  but the ASU has them by the day. With all the data lumped into a whole week it’s hard to get a sense of a trend. It’s a lot easier to see whether there is a trend or not with daily data. Accountability and transparency.

There is also a lot of other interesting COVID-related info on the Biodesign home page.