Dr. Joe Gerald’s Latest Modeling Shows Viral Transmission Slowing but Community Spread is Still Happening

Dr. Joe Gerald from the UA Mel & Enid Zuckerman College of Public Health just finished his latest model run for Arizona. The COVID ACT NOW group is now reporting the effective viral transmission value R0 by state and county. The R0 for Arizona is 1.12 indicating continued modest case growth with a peak daily case count projected at some future date. Our goal is to get the R0 to less than 1.

R0 is called the “R Naught” and it represents the number of people each infected person transmits the virus to. When an R0 figure drops below 1, it means that the number of new cases isn’t expected to grow. New cases will still occur, but the number wouldn’t be expected to increase.

Social distancing has slowed and continues to slow viral transmission; however, reported cases, hospitalizations, or ICU utilization has yet to clearly peak. Community-driven viral transmission remains in place suggesting that maintaining social distancing remains important in order to prevent a resurgence and a rebound of the R0. While current social distancing restrictions appear to be sufficient to prevent exponential growth, transmission is still occurring.

Dr. Gerald reports that “… COVID-19 testing remains constrained with inadequate testing for clinical and public health demands. Until this is overcome lifting social distancing restrictions risks a resurgence in active cases.”

Here is his latest analysis. Take a look. It’s an interesting analysis today.

Community Providers Offering Expanded Testing on Saturdays

Last week the state health department set a goal of testing an additional 30,000 to 60,000 people over the next three weekends for the SARS CoV2 virus. The goal is to test between 10,000 and 20,000 people starting yesterday and also the next 2 Saturdays (May 9 and May 16). 

They said testing will take place at drive-thru and onsite locations across the state. The testing locations, hours and registration information can be found at azhealth.gov/testingblitz.

The supply of test kits and specimen transport media must have gotten a lot better in the last week in order to make a commitment like this. Up until now, the availability of testing kits has been an impediment to wider testing.

It sure will be interesting to see the surveillance data that comes out of the Saturday testing.  While I expect that it’ll result in an increase in cases- I bet it also finds a lower percent positive rate because lower risk people are being tested.  The ADHS Data Dashboard hasn’t been updated yet this am… but you can check back on the dashboard to see how that blitz thing worked out.

Also, remember that the chart that shows new hospitalizations per day is really the most important surveillance tool because it’s less dependent on ephemeral testing capacity.

 

Legislative Changes to TANF and AHCCCS

TANF: The Temporary Assistance for Needy Family (TANF) program provides many forms of assistance including cash assistance, childcare, transportation, mental health counseling, child abuse prevention, early intervention, job training and job placement services. This program received major changes to its eligibility in response to the coronavirus pandemic.

Before emergency legislation was passed, citizens were eligible for 60 months of TANF during their lifetime, with potential for a waiver for another 60 months if you met the limit as a minor. Additionally, families with one or more adult must have 20 hours of work, community service or educational training to be eligible.

After the passing of Senate Bill 1687,  these requirements are no longer in effect. As stated in this bill, all TANF time limits and work requirements have been waived for the duration of the emergency declaration.

AHCCCS: Senate Bill 1687 updated the AHCCCS program to authorize payments to behavioral health service providers who were not originally eligible and now authorizes payments to providers of services to individuals with intellectual and developmental disabilities that did not previously qualify. The AHCCCS program estimates that 43,000 have joined AHCCCS as a result of the coronavirus pandemic which accounts for a 2 percent increase in the total enrollment. These provisions will expire once the governor’s emergency declaration is lifted.

A shout out to AzPHA policy interns Desiree Jones, Dylan Miller and Caitlin Tillis for this post!

Medicaid’s Role in the Next Phase of COVID-19 Response: Part I

Across the nation, government, business, and community leaders are devising plans to re-open the economy and public spaces, while minimizing the risks associated with a second wave of infection. These plans necessitate a dramatic increase in targeted surveillance activities that involve: (1) widespread testing; (2) contact tracing; (3) isolation of infected individuals; and (4) supports to seniors and other high-risk populations.

This reality raises important questions about how to build surveillance capacity at the scale and speed necessary to phase down current restrictions without recreating the conditions that led to the initial surge in infection and mortality. State public health and Medicaid agencies are well-poised to leverage existing partnerships and complementary skillsets to collaborate on these efforts.

Historically, health surveillance activities have been the domain of federal, state, and local public health departments. While these agencies are experts in organizing crisis responses to public health emergencies, the scale of the current pandemic is extraordinary. Along these lines, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recently discussed plans to re-purpose thousands of Census Bureau workers to augment contact tracing capacity. However, even with these supports, the magnitude of the current pandemic will require partnerships and resources from multiple sectors to create a response at a sufficient scale and within an acceptable timeframe to allow for safe restoration of public life.

State Legislature Might Reconvene (or maybe not)

Reports released earlier this week leaned towards the state legislature permanently ending on May 1. These plans were quickly changed as a closed caucus meeting revealed that some legislators wanted to continue the session’s work. State lawmakers may choose to further postpone their return date, return to work on legislation on May 1 or take advantage of a rule change that allows Representative Bowers and Senator Fann to approve legislators to work from home. Read the detail here.

Journal Article of the Week:

Presymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 Infections and Transmission in a Skilled Nursing Facility

CONCLUSIONS: Rapid and widespread transmission of SARS-CoV-2 was demonstrated in this skilled nursing facility. More than half of residents with positive test results were asymptomatic at the time of testing and most likely contributed to transmission. Infection-control strategies focused solely on symptomatic residents were not sufficient to prevent transmission after SARS-CoV-2 introduction into this facility.

Free On-Line Contact Tracing Training Now Available!

The stay at home orders and other social distancing measures have been working to ‘flatten the curve’ of COVID-19 cases across the country (including in Arizona). But to be honest, ‘stay at home’ type orders aren’t sustainable over the long run because of the collateral damage that these interventions cause in the economy (especially among folks that work in the service sector).

A much more refined tool that has far fewer consequences for the economy is ‘contact tracing’. Over the longer term, case identification and contact tracing is the key to limiting the spread of COVID-19 (until we get a vaccine or reach herd-immunity). In a nutshell, contact tracing involves:

1) Quick and easy testing to identify folks that are infected with an agent (in this case SARS CoV2);

2) Quickly contacting that person and ensuring that they understand that they need to go into Isolation (and coaching them how);

3) Working with the infected person to identify their close contacts over the period in which they were communicable;

4) Finding those contacts and letting them know that they’re at risk for developing the disease; and

5) Helping the contacts to understand that they need to quarantine for a period of time to prevent the spread to others.

It’s a labor intensive process that will require lots of new public health staff, and those folks will need training.

Fortunately, new on-line training is now available. Today, the Association of State and Territorial Health Officials announced they have developed on-demand training for entry-level COVID-19 contact tracers. The course, called Making Contact: A Training for COVID-19 Contact Tracers supports ongoing public health agency efforts to prepare new contact tracers for their work of helping identify COVID-19 positive cases and those with whom they have been in close contact.

Folks that take the initiative and complete the training on their own will be very good candidates to be hired by local public health agencies as contact tracers. Here’s a link to that training

Resources to Help States and Counties Think Through Reopening Criteria

CDC posted a new website that has a variety of resources for state, tribal, local, and territorial health agencies to help them think through intervention relaxation criteria. Topics include infection prevention and control, laboratory capacity, community mitigation, financial resources, surveillance and data analytics, contact tracing, and communication materials. It includes resources from CDC, other federal agencies, the private sector, academia, and non-profit organizations.

Rapid Development of An Inactivated Vaccine for SARS-CoV-2

Encouraging Study Results for an Inactivated SARS-CoV-2 Vaccine

Link: Rapid Development of An Inactivated Vaccine for SARS-CoV-2

Researchers in the above study developed a pilot-scale production of a purified inactivated SARS-CoV-2 vaccine. Administration of the vaccine induced SARS-CoV-2-specific neutralizing antibodies in mice, rats and non-human primates.

The antibodies produced in the animals neutralized 10 different SARS-CoV-2 strains. Immunization with two different doses  provided partial or complete protection (in macaques).  Systematic evaluation of the vaccine that it’s safe in macaques.

Early data to be sure, but encouraging.