Below is an excerpt from Dr. Joe Gerald’s weekly epidemiology and hospital capacity report. As always, see the full report for all the discussion and informative graphs and analysis.

For the week ending April 4th, 4281 Covid-19 cases were diagnosed in Arizona. This represents a 2% increase from last week’s initial tally of 4200 cases and marks the second week of slightly increasing case rates. The prior week’s tally was upwardly revised by <1% (29 cases) to 4229 cases this week.

Case rates among those ≥65 years of age have fallen below those of children for the first time, 28 versus 37 cases per 100K residents per week, respectfully.

The highest rates remain among those 15 – 24 years and 25 – 64 years of age, 95 and 70 cases per 100K residents per week, respectfully. Arizona case rates remain “stuck” just above the threshold differentiating substantial and moderate risk.

As predicted in the March 26 Update, our 3-month streak of sustained improvements has stalled owing to more transmissible variants (e.g., B.1.1.7) and/or normalization of business and social activities (e.g., EO 2021-06).

Nevertheless, hospital capacity remains adequate to meet Arizona’s needs even though the backlog of non-Covid care has yet to be fully addressed. While residents and businesses should continue to follow public health recommendations, normalization of low-risk activities remains reasonable.

New cases are now being diagnosed at a rate of 59 per 100K residents per week; this rate is neither increasing nor decreasing. For reference, September 8th marked the fall nadir between the summer and winter outbreaks at 38 cases per 100K residents per week.

Post-holiday case rates reached a low of 53 cases per 100K residents on March 23, 2021. Unvaccinated Arizonans who are at risk of developing severe disease (e.g., age or comorbid conditions) or who simply wish to remain uninfected should continue to shelter as much as feasible because viral activity remains widespread.