Firearm Violence in Arizona: An Avoidable Public Health Crisis

 – Guest blog by Julia Jackman, B.S., B.A., MSc Candidate in Global Health Fulbright Study & Research Grantee, Norwegian University of Science & Technology 

1,265 Arizonans.

1,265 lives cut short.

1,265 families with a missing seat at the dinner table.

1,265 deaths due to firearms in 2020 alone.

A Growing Problem in Arizona: Suicides, Homicides, Police Shootings, Mass Shootings, and School Shootings

Firearm violence is one of the leading causes of death among both adults (11th) and children aged 1-19 (2nd) in Arizona. These deaths are preventable. They are the result of inequality, inadequate and dangerous policies, and a culture deeply concerned with personal rights and individualism.

Contrary to popular belief, aggravated gun violence (i.e., gun homicide/murder) is not the primary driver of firearm mortality in Arizona; in fact, from 1999-2020, 65% of firearm deaths were due to suicide. Homicides made up about 31% of deaths, and police shootings, unintentional, and undetermined deaths made up the remaining 4% of deaths.

View Our Full Report: Firearm Violence in Arizona: Data to Inform Prevention Policies

These deaths don’t come out of nowhere. The U.S. leads the world in gun ownership per capita and household gun ownership is consistently associated with rates of firearm suicides, homicides, and accidental shootings.

Rates of firearm mortality are on the rise in Arizona. Firearm suicides have been increasing by 1.2% per year since 2005; rates of firearm homicides have been increasing by 7.1% per year since 2014; and rates of police shootings have been increasing by 4.0% per year from 2000-2021.

Nationally, school shootings have been increasing by 30% per year since 2011; in Arizona, there have been more school shootings in the first three years of this decade than in any previous decade.

Arizona has witnessed 20 school shootings at 19 schools since 1970, with the majority occurring since 2010. Mass shootings have also been on the rise; nationally, rates have increased by 153% since 2014.

The problem is pervasive and unrelenting, with 2020 bringing an average of 7 nonfatal firearm injuries and 3.5 fatal firearm injuries per day in Arizona. While detailed data on firearm deaths are readily – and freely – available at the state and national level from government and independent sources, there is no comparable complete data source on nonfatal firearm injuries for the U.S.

View Our Full Report: Firearm Violence in Arizona: Data to Inform Prevention Policies

Nevertheless, we found that non-fatal firearm injuries greatly outnumbered fatal injuries in Arizona; without publicly accessible granular data, it is very difficult to determine upon which populations this burden is greatest. This highlights the need for more funding in the area of gun violence research to better understand the distribution of firearm injuries.

A Social Justice Problem

As with nearly every other health outcome in the United States and Arizona, sociodemographic disparities are present in firearm deaths in Arizona.

Homicides disproportionately impact non-Hispanic black people. When compared to the Asian and Pacific Islander population (the least at-risk group in Arizona), non-Hispanic blacks experienced an 8.6-fold increased risk of firearm homicide.

This trend is in line with national data showing that residential segregation and structural violence may contribute to the disproportionately high rates of gun homicide in U.S. Census tracts with a higher proportion of black residents. Disaggregating the data by sex shows that males had significantly higher rates of gun homicide across all racial and ethnic groups.

Suicides, on the other hand, peak in non-Hispanic white males older than 85 years old. Both old age and white race drive this trend; the rate among men over 85 is 24x higher than the rate for females of the same age category, and the rate among non-Hispanic whites was double the rate of every other racial group.

Hispanic Arizonans are also at a much higher risk of firearm mortality when compared to Hispanic Arizonans in all other states—in fact, Hispanic Arizonans have the highest rate of firearm homicide of Hispanic populations in any other state.

Police shootings almost exclusively affected males, who accounted for 94% of all fatal police shooting victims. Both black and indigenous populations were overrepresented in police shootings relative to their percentage of the population.

Financial Costs of Gun Violence in Arizona

The human toll of gun violence clearly paints a dramatic problem; nevertheless, the financial toll of gun violence is also extraordinary. The CDC calculates estimates for the total value of a statistical life (i.e., cost of death prevention) due to firearm mortality.

In Arizona in 2020, this figure was more than $8.03 billion for suicide and $4.45 billion for homicide. Everytown for Gun Safety creates a more comprehensive estimate that also includes non-medical costs like property damage, criminal justice proceedings, and loss-of-work costs. This total societal cost estimated for Arizona in 2019 was nearly $16 billion, which totals about 4.3% of Arizona’s total GDP.

A Path Forward

So, how do we fix this? It won’t be easy, and the road in Arizona is not yet paved, but we can look to the blueprints used in other states and countries that have reduced gun mortality.

View Evidence Based Policy Interventions in Our Full Report:

Firearm Violence in Arizona: Data to Inform Prevention Policies

Based on the evidence outlined in the report, we have selected five evidence-based policies, listed below, which, if implemented, could have a significant impact on gun violence in Arizona.

Notably, many of the above policies are highly supported by the public. A January 2021 memo from Giffords and Everytown found that 93% of those surveyed supported “requiring background checks on all gun sales” (from a national sample of voters in the 2020 election and voters in battleground House districts).

Additionally, according to a 2021 survey of gun owners and non-gun owners, requiring a permit for concealed carry is a popular policy, with only 20% of Americans supporting completely permitless concealed carry. The same study showed that 74% of respondents also agreed that conceal carry permit applicants should also have to “pass a test demonstrating that they can safely and lawfully handle a gun in common situations they might encounter.” The public supports commonsense measures—do our elected state representatives?

Firearm safety legislation has been implemented in states around the U.S., with much success in curbing gun violence mortality. The figures below show that firearm mortality in A-rated states (i.e., states with comprehensive firearm violence prevention legislation) have lower firearm mortality rates among all racial and ethnic groups than F-rated states such as Arizona, which lack firearm safety legislation.

I think of the Swiss cheese model of harm when I think of firearm violence prevention. (A more in-depth explanation of the model can be found here). The idea behind this model, which was widely used to describe COVID-19 precautions, is that multiple layers of protection are vital to address public health concerns and that no single prevention measure will work perfectly. There will never be a panacea to the gun violence public health crisis.

We need many forms of protection, ranging from conversations about gun safety in our families and communities, advocacy for common sense legislative action, and relentless attention to the tragic deaths that occur every single day. As shown in the political cartoon, ending gun violence requires many puzzle pieces which include legislation, community engagement, mental health financing, and research funding, among other interventions.

See Evidence-Based Interventions in Our Full Report

We cannot come to the point where yet another shooting on the nightly news is just background noise. We cannot become complacent. We must mourn the victims and vow to stop the epidemic. Neither policy action nor mortality decreases will happen overnight, but through deliberate, concerted, and committed actions, change is possible, if only we are willing to act. These deaths are not inevitable.

Let’s work together to ensure that 1,265 more Arizona families don’t have to eat around a dinner table with an empty chair next year or any year to come.

Citations for all data can be found in the report, linked here. If you or someone you know is experiencing suicidal thoughts or mental health-related distress, call or text 988 for the Suicide and Crisis Lifeline, a free and confidential support line available 24/7/365. You are not alone.

AZPHA-Gun Violence Presentation

Community Health Worker Medicaid Reimbursement Begins April 1

Last week the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services approved AHCCCS’ request to begin reimbursing Community Health Workers for services provided to Medicaid members. CHWs are an integral and essential part of the health care delivery system, often at the front lines of the intersection between communities and health care providers.

CHWs often are also known by other names, such as Community Health Representatives, Patient Navigator, Promotores de Salud, Community Health Advisors, and Cultural Health Navigators, to name a few. Approval to reimburse CHWs for services is effective April 1, 2023.

Last week’s action brings full circle to the multi-year effort to build a reimbursement pathway for CHWs in Arizona. Way back in 2016 a group of stakeholders including AZPHA began pressing to give the ADHS the statutory responsibility to certify CHWs, a pre-requisite for reimbursement under Medicaid.

We succeeded in getting that authority in 2018 when the Arizona Legislature passed House Bill 2324, requiring ADHS to establish qualifications, a scope of practice, and core competencies for Certified Community Health Workers. That bill was successful due to the tenacious work be then Representative Heather Carter. See the ADHS Community Health Workers web page.

Starting April 1, 2023, AHCCCS and their contractors will be able to reimburse certified CHWs when their services are recommended by a physician or other licensed practitioner of the healing arts acting within the scope of authorized practice.

Services must be documented in the member’s medical record and may include health system navigation and resource coordination, health education and training, and health promotion and coaching.

AHCCCS has three billing codes for CHW’s: 98960- patient education & training for 1 patient for 30 minutes; 98961- for a group of two to four patients; and 98962- or a group of five to eight patients.

CHW Certification Portal Now Open

Arizona’s Community Health Workers can apply for voluntary certification once they show they meet the standards and have successfully completed an approved training program. Here is the ADHS certification portal. ADHS is using a federal grant to temporarily bring the certification fee down to $1, but that will end when the grant funding ends. Applications are fully electronic and available at azhealth.gov/CHW.

Report: Building Community Health Workers into the Continuum of Care

How to Get Your CHW Training Program Certified

The Tumblers Click: Community Health Workers Entering Arizona’s Care Network at Scale

Bill Moving the AZ State Hospital to an Independent Governing Board Ready for Final House Vote

AzPHA is a supporter of SB1710 which would change the governing structure for the Arizona State Hospital (ASH) from one in which the Arizona Department of Health Services both runs and ‘regulates’ ASH to a model in which the hospital operations would be managed by an independent governing body. The hospital Superintendent would report to the governing board rather than the ADHS Director. ADHS would then regulate the facility without an institutional conflict of interest.

The current governance structure for operating and regulating the Arizona State Hospital is fundamentally flawed because ADHS both runs and regulates the hospital. The lack of independent regulation and oversight results in poor accountability and can lead to unchecked substandard care when ADHS leadership soft-pedals regulatory oversight to give the appearance that the facilities are providing care that meets standards.

There is evidence that this occurred during the Ducey Administration. Even after multiple suicides and once homicide, ADHS‘ licensing division concluded that no operating deficiencies led to those deaths.

For context read this article by Amy Silverman: Patient deaths at Arizona State Hospital raise questions about staffing levels, lack of oversight and this piece by Mary Jo Pitzl at the Arizona Republic

March 23, 2023 Update: SB1710 passed the full Senate with a vote of 27-2 and has passed all assigned committees in the House. It awaits a final floor vote in the AZ House of Representatives following Committee of the Whole. If it isn’t amended on the House floor and passes it would go to Governor Hobbs’ desk for a signature w/o returning to the Senate.

If SB1710 is passed and signed, the responsibility for running the Civil and Forensic units of the Arizona State Hospital would transition to an independent board appointed by the governor beginning 1/1/25. The ASH Superintendent would report to the new Board. ASH would still be regulated by ADHS, but the institutional conflict of interest would be removed as ADHS would no longer be responsible for actually running the hospital.

ADHS leadership during the Ducey administration and even ADHS’ communications director during the Hobbs era has suggested that the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services provides sufficient independent oversight of ASH, an oft-told and misleading statement. To clear things up, we prepared this review of how the Arizona State Hospital is ‘regulated’ under the current model. We close with a review of why SB1710 is so important.

Overview

There are 3 components to the Arizona State Hospital (ASH)…  the Civil Hospital, Forensic Hospital, and the Arizona Community Protection and Treatment Center (ACPTC). The regulatory oversight differs for the 3 components that make up ASH.

Civil Hospital

The ASH Civil Hospital provides treatment and care for persons that are court ordered to the facility for psychiatric care.  The Civil Hospital at ASH is run and regulated by the Arizona Department of Health Services (ADHS). ADHS’ Licensing Division is responsible for regulating the Civil Hospital which the ASH Superintendent is responsible for its operation.

State Licensure

State law allows healthcare institutions like ASH’ Civil Hospital to enjoy a Deemed Status license from the ADHS. That means that the Civil Hospital can hire an accrediting body to accredit the Civil Hospital. Once accredited, the Civil Hospital turns in the accrediting report to the ADHS Licensing division, and the ASH Civil Hospital receives a License from the ADHS – even though the ADHS doesn’t do an inspection of the facility before issuing the license.

The ADHS pays The Joint Commission (TJC) to accredit the Civil Hospital. ASH Civil started hiring TJC to do that work when I was Director. I think we paid TJC something like $10K for that service. Here’s a link to the deemed status licensing information about the Civil Hospital: Licensing Statement of Deficiencies.  ADHS accepts the accreditation in lieu of an inspection and issues the state license to operate on that basis.

While the ADHS doesn’t do any annual inspections of the Civil Unit (because of its ‘Deemed Status’), the ADHS Licensing division can send out surveyors to investigate complaints about the care at the Civil Hospital when they receive them. If the complaint is substantiated, the ADHS Licensing Division can require corrective action and has some enforcement authority like issuing civil money penalties or placing the facility on a provisional license or even seeking revocation.

You can see that ADHS ‘complaint investigations’ seldom substantiate the complaints they receive and seldom find deficiencies (with a few exceptions). Here’s the recent compliance record: Licensing Services Facilities Report (azdhs.gov)

CMS Certification

Because Medicare and Medicaid (AHCCCS in Arizona) pay for some of the services at the ASH Civil Hospital, CMS requires ASH’ Civil Hospital to be Certified to their certification standards. However, CMS doesn’t do their own certifications. They contract with the ADHS Licensing staff on the 4th floor of the ADHS building to conduct the certification inspections.

ADHS licensing staff go out and check at the ADHS ASH Civil Units to see if they’re adhering to CMS’ certification standards (which are a little different from the actual ADHS healthcare Institution regulations). ADHS Licensure then sends their report to CMS Region IX in San Francisco and the report is blocked, copied, and pasted and is sent back on CMS letterhead.

Civil Unit Summary

ADHS both runs and regulates the ASH Civil Hospital. ADHS leadership often suggest that there are checks and balances in the regulatory system to send the message that the monitoring of care is rigorous. The fact is that CMS Certification is not an independent review of care at the Civil Hospital because the work is conducted by ADHS Licensing staff.

While it’s true that The Joint Commission accreditation is separate from ADHS, the ADHS voluntarily pays TJC for the accreditation surveys and TJC views ADHS as a customer/client. TJC is not a regulatory body, and they have no enforcement authority. TJC Accreditation inspections that document deficiencies can sometimes jeopardize their contract with their customer, which has a chilling effect on documenting deficiencies.

Forensic Hospital

The ASH’ Forensic Hospital provides care for patients that are determined by the courts to be “Guilty Except Insane” or “Not Guilty by Reason of Insanity”.  The Forensic Hospital is also both run and ‘regulated’ by the ADHS Licensing Division.

State law allows healthcare institutions like ASH’ Forensic Hospital to enjoy a Deemed Status license from the ADHS. That means that the Forensic Hospital can also hire an accrediting body to accredit the Forensic Hospital. Once accredited, the Forensic Hospital turns in the accrediting report to the ADHS Licensing division and receives a License from the ADHS – even though the ADHS doesn’t do an actual inspection of the facility. The ADHS also pays The Joint Commission (TJC) to accredit the Forensic Hospital.

When the ADHS Licensing division receives complaints about care at the Forensic Hospital they can send out surveyors to investigate those complaints. If the complaint is substantiated, the ADHS Licensing Division can require corrective action and has some enforcement authority like issuing civil money penalties or placing the facility on a provisional license or even seeking revocation.

You can see that ADHS ‘complaint investigations’ seldom substantiate the complaints and seldom do they find deficiencies (with some exceptions). Here’s the recent compliance record: Licensing Services Facilities Report (azdhs.gov)

Because CMS doesn’t pay for services at the Forensic Hospital there’s no need for CMS Certification of ASH’ Forensic Hospital.

Arizona Community Protection and Treatment Center

The Arizona Community Protection and Treatment Center (ACPTC) provides residential and care services for people that are civilly committed by the courts to the facility as a ‘Sexually Violent Person’. The ACPTC is licensed by the ADHS Licensure Division. They are not accredited by The Joint Commission nor are they accredited by CMS.

Conclusion

The current governance structure for operating and regulating the Arizona State Hospital is fundamentally flawed because the ADHS both runs and regulates the hospital. The lack of independent regulation and oversight results in poor accountability and can lead to unchecked substandard care when ADHS leadership soft-pedals regulatory oversight to give the appearance that the facilities are providing care that meets standards. There is evidence that this occurred during the Ducey Administration.

SB1710 is a needed reform of the governance structure that would move operational responsibility for operating ASH to an independent Governing Board. ADHS would continue to regulate the facilities but would be relieved of the conflict of interest that comes with running and regulating the same facility.

Sadly, Governor Ducey’s team killed the bill in House Rules last year…  but we’re confident that this year’s commonsense intervention (SB1710) will also prevail in the House. In the meantime, we’ll continue our advocacy to get this bipartisan bill to Governor Hobbs for her signature.

View Legislative Council’s Bill Summary

Early March Legislative Update

Last week and this week are known as ‘crossover weeks’ when most committees don’t meet to clear everyone’s calendar for floor votes. Days were quite long last week with the House of Representatives spending 12 hours voting on bills one day last week.

The only committee that met last week was the Senate Committee on Director Nominations, a newly formed special committee to evaluate Governor Hobbs’ nominees to lead state agencies (see my op-ed on my opinion about that committee’s work: Senate committee doesn’t ‘vet’ nominees. It sabotages them

There were three nominations on the agenda—the Department of Transportation (ADOT), the Department of Administration (ADOA), and the Department of Environmental Quality (ADEQ)—but only the ADOT and ADOA nominees were considered, and only the ADOT nominee was recommended for a vote by the full Senate.

After the Senate Committee voted against former ADHS Director nominee Dr. Theresa Cullen and with the record from this week’s hearing, we can expect a challenging road ahead for all of Governor Hobbs’ nominees.

The ‘Third Read’ (floor vote) calendar in the House tomorrow is a mile long – looks like it could be another 12-hour day? Calendars || Bill Status Inquiry. Monday’s calendar in the Senate is a lot shorter right now but could get a lot bigger (although there are far more House bills than Senate bills owing to the fact there twice as many members of the House as the Senate.

Here’s our Bill Tracking Spreadsheet for this week 

Now that the conference is over, I hope to have more time to do a more narrative analysis of bills in next week’s update.

In the meantime, here’s an updated PowerPoint I just gave to the AZ Academy of Family Physicians summarizing the various bills we’re tracking and advocating for & against.

AZPHA’s AZ Firearm Injury & Death Surveillance & Intervention Evidence Review Will Be Published March 9

Last year the AZPHA Board of Directors got together for a strategic planning retreat. One of the outcomes was to develop strategic priorities for the next 2 years – which included prioritizing work around firearm violence.

The public health impact of firearm violence was clearly not a priority for state agencies including ADHS during the Ducey Administration, so we took it upon ourselves to fill that gap – much like we did by providing clarity during the pandemic.

All good public health work starts with surveillance and an evidence review…  so we commissioned a report from Julia Jackman, B.S., B.A., an MSc Candidate in Global Health Fulbright Study & Research Grantee at the Norwegian University of Science & Technology to conduct the Arizona-specific surveillance and the literature evidence review.

Allan N. Williams, MPH, PhD Adjunct Assistant Professor, University of Minnesota School of Public Health Retired, Chronic Disease & Environmental Epidemiology, MN Dept. of Health served as her mentor throughout the months-long research project.

The report is finished, and we expect to publish our findings next week in a report entitled:

Gun Violence in Arizona Data to Inform Prevention Policies

The objectives of this report include:

  • Identifying and reviewing the relevant literature on gun violence;
  • Identifying and using available key data sources for gun violence;
  • Defining the human and financial toll of gun violence in Arizona;
  • Characterizing the different forms of gun violence including suicide, homicide, police shootings, and unintentional shootings;
  • Characterizing the demographics of gun violence by age, gender, race/ethnicity, and urbanicity;
  • Comparing gun violence rates in Arizona to rates in other states and the U.S.;
  • Identifying gun laws and policies that have been shown to reduce gun violence; and
  • Showing where Arizona stands with respect to key evidence-based gun laws.

Stay Tuned!