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Arizona’s legislative session is in its standard late-session opacity pattern. Budget talks are happening behind closed doors, and most other major work is waiting for the budget deal.

The players are the (R) House and Senate appropriations chairs (Montenegro & Petersen) along with Governor Hobbs.

Last week’s KJZZ’s recent interview with Capitol reporter Howard Fischer suggests a deal may be getting close.

This week at the Arizona Legislature: How close is a new budget deal?

Petersen told Howie that the parties are “probably 97% of the way” there. He also pointed out that Hobbs’ earlier revenue ideas, like gaming tax changes and voucher income limits, appear unlikely to survive, while the Legislature’s across-the-board cuts also appear less likely after Hobbs vetoed the earlier Republican budget plan.

There haven’t been any leaks that I know of about whether critical funding for hiring eligibility staff for AHCCCS and SNAP benefits is on the table. To me that’s the most important part of the budget.

Once the deal is released, things will probably move really fast. The House and Senate will likely vote on the budget package quickly. After that we can expect a “rapid fire” round of floor votes on bills that have been languishing for weeks.

Then there’s the ballot referrals. Unlike regular bills, legislatively proposed constitutional or statutory changes go straight to the ballot and can’t be vetoed. Once the budget is done legislative leaders will decide which of the roughly 30 proposed referrals get put on the floor for a final vote. If they pass, voters will see them on the 2026 ballot.

To be honest, Montenegro and Petersen have probably already decided which of the proposed ballot measures they’ll put on the calendar.

Potential 2026 Ballot Measures: A Public Health Perspective – AZ Public Health Association

One unresolved issue are agency director confirmations. It looks unlikely that there’ll be more director nomination hearings this year (there were none last week).

That could create a problem for keeping Debbie Johnston as acting ADHS director. Hobbs appointed Johnston in November, and like other agency heads, she needs Senate confirmation (her 1-year time clock ends on November 25, 2026, I think).

Maybe, just maybe, the governor will do a bit of brinksmanship & connect the budget deal to floor votes on her nominees.

By next Sunday I might be able to present a session hotwash…  but we’ll see.