New AzPHA Report: COVID-19 Has Been the Leading Cause of Death During the Pandemic in Arizona

One of our AzPHA members, Allan N. Williams, MPH, PhD, recently retired from his role as a public health statistician at the Minnesota Department of Health and moved to AZ. He’s been helping us analyze key data in Arizona. His latest report was published this week and is entitled “COVID-19 As the Leading Cause of Death in Arizona During the Pandemic: An Evidence Review

Not surprisingly, our report found that COVID-19 has been the leading cause of death in Arizona during the pandemic. The fact that COVID deaths are currently comparable in prevalence to our two long-standing major killers – heart disease and cancer – is a sobering statistic and represents a deadly failure to control this pandemic.

Nationally, COVID-19 is the 3rd leading cause of death (behind cancer and heart disease). In states that had thoughtful governors and health directors who made evidence-based intervention decisions (e.g. statewide universal masking, enforcing mitigation measures in bars and nightclubs etc.) and who properly executed key operational priorities, COVID-19 is a distant 3rd (well behind heart disease and cancer).

To illustrate this we compare COVID-19 mortality in Arizaon to Colorado and Washington State (two Western states with similar populations). The difference between AZ, CO and WA is of course that Washington and Colorado have thoughtful governors that tried to mitigate the spread of COVID-19. Ours did not.

For example, in Figure 4 in our report shows that COVID 19 as a cause of death has been a DISTANT 3rd in CO and WA (well behind heart disease and cancer). The difference of course is that they have governors that care about whether people live or die.

Please take a look at this important report. It’s evidence that documents the gravity of the mistakes that Governor Ducey and Director Christ made during the pandemic. And remember, this ‘excess mortality’ represents lives that were unnecessarily lost. It represents people that would be with their families today but for the decisions made by Governor Ducey and Director Christ.

A huge thanks to Dr. Williams for his work bringing this important information to light.

West Nile Virus has Reached the Highest Levels Ever Recorded in Maricopa County

The West Nile Virus arrived for the first time that we know of in North American in 2003. There were cases East of the Mississippi that year, and the Eastern US did experience a significant outbreak that year. The next year was the Western US’ turn, and Arizona has several hundred cases of the West Nile virus that year. Most of us thought that 2004 would always be the worst year, but that is no longer true.

The number of West Nile virus cases has now exceed the number from 2004 in Arizona, most likely owing to the generous monsoon season that we had. The reason we thought we’d never have another year like 2004 is that the first year is almost always the worst for WNV. That’s because Arizona birds are the primary reservoir for the virus and in year one, all the birds are susceptible while in later years mostly just the new hatchlings are susceptible (mosquitoes spread the disease from bird to bird). Humans are more of a secondary reservoir.

Here are some factoids about WNV:

No symptoms in most people. Most people (8 out of 10) infected with West Nile virus do not develop any symptoms.

Febrile illness (fever) in some people. About 1 in 5 people who are infected develop a fever with other symptoms such as headache, body aches, joint pains, vomiting, diarrhea, or rash. Most people with febrile illness due to West Nile virus recover completely, but fatigue and weakness can last for weeks or months.

Serious symptoms in a few people. About 1 in 150 people who are infected develop a severe illness affecting the central nervous system such as encephalitis (inflammation of the brain) or meningitis (inflammation of the membranes that surround the brain and spinal cord).

  • Symptoms of severe illness include high fever, headache, neck stiffness, stupor, disorientation, coma, tremors, convulsions, muscle weakness, vision loss, numbness and paralysis.
  • Severe illness can occur in people of any age; however, people over 60 years of age are at greater risk for severe illness if they are infected (1 in 50 people). People with certain medical conditions, such as cancer, diabetes, hypertension, kidney disease, and people who have received organ transplants, are also at greater risk.
  • Recovery from severe illness might take several weeks or months. Some effects to the central nervous system might be permanent.
  • About 1 out of 10 people who develop severe illness affecting the central nervous system die.

Diagnosis

  • See your healthcare provider if you develop the symptoms described above.
  • Your healthcare provider can order tests to look for West Nile virus infection.
  • To learn more about testing, visit our Healthcare Providers page.

Treatment

  • No vaccine or specific medicines are available for West Nile virus infection.
  • Over-the-counter pain relievers can be used to reduce fever and relieve some symptoms
  • In severe cases, patients often need to be hospitalized to receive supportive treatment, such as intravenous fluids, pain medication, and nursing care.
  • If you think you or a family member might have West Nile virus disease, talk with your health care provider.
  • To learn more about treatment, visit our Healthcare Providers page

For additional information and resources, please visit :

Arizona Has An On-line Portal to Get Your Immunization Record: Will It Work for You?

ADHS’ Vaccine Look Up Tool – AZ MyIR

With employer-based mandates kicking in and as folks approach the 6-8 month mark post their initial COVID-19 vaccine, it will be more and more important for folks to be able to access their vaccination records.

Fortunately, several years ago (back when I was with ADHS), we put together a tool so that parents could look up their kid’s vaccination records without going to the pediatrician to get a copy. It’s called MyIRMobile.  The idea was to provide a tool so that parents could save time and money by accessing your records at home for free. The tool is supposed to allow you to print out official immunization certificates to turn in to your child’s school or summer camp or whatever.

State law (ARS 36-135) requires vaccinators of children to input the data in to Arizona’s vaccine registry (called ASIIS), so the data in the system for kids should be fairly complete (for vaccines given in Arizona). Adult data is also in the registry and can be accessed by MyIR, but the data may not be as complete because while pharmacists are required to submit data into ASIIS, other providers are not.

However, all COVID-19 vaccine data should be in the system for both kids and adults because Executive Order 2020-57 requires all vaccinators to submit every dose of the COVID-19 vaccines.

I went into the system to check on my family’s records and was stymied. For a few days the system just gave me a message back that my ‘records will become available once my profiles are linked to the Arizona registry’. A few days later I got a request asking for my consent to link to ASIIS. I did that this morning. I’ll update this post later if I’m actually able to get my family’s vaccine records.

Technical assistance is also available, select this HELP link for General Information on MyIR Mobile, Frequently Asked Questions, User Guides or Chat. The Service Desk hours are 8 a.m. to 5 p.m. Monday through Friday.

October 26, 2021 Update: It took about a week, but my records did sync and it’s a reasonably good record of my immunization history. I also discovered that I forgot to get my Shingles booster… and the system is correct about that.

Hospitalizations Remain Stubbornly High with 25% of ICU Capacity Absorbed by Unvaccinated COVID Patients

#DeltaDucey Wave Continues to Take 200-300 Lives Per Week
View Dr. Joe Gerald’s Full Epidemiology & Hospital Occupancy Report

Arizona continues to experience high levels of community transmission with case rates modestly improving. Test positivity remains stubbornly high reminding us that test capacity, accessibility, and/or uptake is inadequate to meet public health needs. Plateauing among older, highly vaccinated groups serves as a warning that major behavioral shifts or waning immunity could result in future increases.

As of October 10th, new cases were being diagnosed at a rate of 203 cases per 100K residents per week. The rate was decreasing by 33 cases per 100K residents per week.

With waning vaccine efficacy and a potentially short duration of acquired immunity, the unvaccinated cannot “free ride” on high levels of community immunity. This means that persistently high levels of transmission, and more importantly hospitalizations, are possible for an extended time until the supply of unvaccinated, previously uninfected adults is exhausted.

Vaccination remains the most important public health priority to reduce transmission and severe illness; however, mask mandates, restrictions on indoor gatherings, and targeted business mitigations are still needed to reduce/control transmission in the short-run with the primary goal being to avoid overwhelming our critical care facilities and reducing pressure for new vaccine-escape variants.

Recent reports indicate that vaccine immunity to infection falls against Delta by 6 months. Because immunity against severe illness is long lasting, infections among the vaccinated will have less impact providing hope of an end-game where we can (mostly) live with SARS-CoV-2.

▪ https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)02183-8/fulltext
▪ https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2114583
▪ https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2114114
▪ https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2110362
▪ https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(21)00380-5/fulltext
▪ https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2113017

COVID-19 hospital occupancy is slowly improving. Nevertheless, occupancy continues to exceed 20% of all beds in the general ward and 25% of beds. Access to care will remain restricted in the face of staff shortages in inpatient and outpatient settings.

Weekly COVID-19 deaths continue to exceed 200 per week. The week ending September 5th has now recorded 300 deaths. Hopefully, this will be the first and only time during this third wave.

World Health Organization Recommends a New Malaria Vaccine for Highly Endemic Areas

Nevertheless, this vaccine isn’t a “game changer”

Malaria is an infectious disease caused by a parasite called parasite P. falciparum. People can get malaria when they’re bitten by a mosquito that is infected with the parasite. People typically experience symptoms 10–15 days after being bitten by an infected mosquito. Initial symptoms may be mild, including headache and fever, and it can be hard to tell whether they indicate malaria. However, these symptoms can quickly become life threatening without treatment in the first 24 hours.

Each year, there are an estimated 200 million cases of malaria worldwide, with about 90% in sub-Saharan Africa. Nearly half of all 2017 malaria cases worldwide occurred in five countries: Nigeria, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Mozambique, India and Uganda. Around 400,000 people die every year from malaria, most of them children under 5 years old (67%).  94% of all malaria deaths (and cases) occur in Africa.

Until now, control measures for malaria were mostly things like draining stagnant pools of water to eliminate mosquito breeding places, introducing mosquito larvae eating fish into waters and encouraging the use of mosquito nets at night. All difficult interventions to do at scale especially in rural areas with poor infrastructure.

This week saw a hopeful new development- with an announcement by the World Health Organization that they recommend administration of a new vaccine that is safe and reasonably effective at preventing the worst effects from malaria infections. 

This vaccine (called the RTS,S vaccine) was initially created in 1987 as part of a collaboration between GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) and the Walter Reed Army Institute of Research (WRAIR) that began in 1984. Oddly, pilot implementation in endemic countries until 2019 (I couldn’t find out why it took so long).

The Phase III clinical trial of the vaccine was picked up around 2001 with a public–private partnership with support from, you guessed it, the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. The vaccine’s effectiveness is modest, yet still provides significant public health benefit. The Phase 3 results demonstrated that among children who received 4 doses of vaccine, 1744 clinical malaria cases were prevented for every 1000 children vaccinated. Remember that this is a 4 dose series- challenging to do in rural high prevalence areas.

Modeling studies found that the vaccine would have marginal impact in areas where malaria prevalence is below 3%, and that the median incremental cost-effectiveness ratio is comparable to other current antimalarial interventions, including $25 USD per case averted and $87 USD per disability-adjusted life years averted, assuming $5 USD per dose of vaccine.

A description of the way the vaccine works is presented in this RTS,S/AS01 vaccine (Mosquirix™): an overview.

Editorial Note: This vaccine is an important development, representing the first vaccine against a parasite. The vaccine is moderately effective, but has a high return on investment public health wise in areas of high endemicity. The 4-dose series will be challenging to administer in rural areas where cases are highest. Finally, control measures like eliminating breeding places and protecting sleeping areas with nets and better access to treatment medications and hospitalization (when necessary) will continue to be critical in reducing morbidity and mortality from malaria- even in areas where the vaccine is deployed.

It’s Time to Nail Down Arizona’s Plan to Vaccinate Elementary School Kids… Now

Now that Pfizer has turned in their emergency use authorization application for their vaccine designed for kids between 5 and 11 years old, it’s crunch time to finish figuring out how we’re going to vaccinate kids fast next month. FDA’s advisory committee meeting is October 26th and CDC’s advisory committee is on November 2nd and 3rd, so it looks like we’ll get the green light on November 4.

This Pfizer pediatric vaccine is 1/3 of the dose that’s in the adult Pfizer vaccine but is otherwise the same. It’s coming in 100 dose packages (10 vials with 10 doses each), which is convenient. It’s still unclear whether doctors can spilt adult doses into thirds for kids. I haven’t been able to find out whether and how many pediatric vials will be ready by early November, so finding out whether adult Pfizer doses can be divided in thirds is important (hopefully FDA authorizes that practice). Being able to draw up pediatric size doses from adult vials will be absolutely critical if the supply of pediatric vials is inadequate or interrupted.

Note: While the Pfizer pediatric vaccine will initially be stored and transported at ultra cold temperatures (-90°C and -60°C) the vaccine can be stored at more reasonable temps for up to 2 weeks (before mixing) [ between -25°C and -15°C].

There are several models for getting kids vaccinated. The most desirable is for kids to get vaccinated at their medical home, like their pediatric office, community health center etc. Nationally, 70% of providers that are enrolled in the Vaccines for Children program are also enrolled to provide the COVID19 vaccine to kids. The ADHS hasn’t disclosed what percentage of VFC providers are enrolled in the COVID vaccine here in Arizona.

Whether pediatric offices (whether VFC providers or not) will have the resources and staff to get kids vaccinated fast is an open question. This is a very busy time of year for them and many are already understaffed. For those reasons, it’s important to leverage pharmacies and school and off site community clinics as distribution points.

Pharmacists in Arizona can administer any CDC recommended vaccine to kids 13 years old and up. They can also administer CDC recommended vaccines to kids between 6 and 13 years old with a prescription. But, a ‘Standing Order’ from the county health department can substitute for a formal prescription. [See ARS 32-1974 for the scope of practice for pharmacists re vaccines].  State law allows pharmacists to administer influenza vaccine to kids 3 years old and up without a prescription.

Note: A Standing Order can be used to authorize a pharmacist assess a patient’s immunization status and administer vaccine using a protocol approved by a qualified prescriber.  Standing orders enable assessment and vaccination without a clinician examination or a prescription from the provider that issues the standing order.

In addition, ARS 32-1974(E) says that pharmacists can administer vaccines to anybody regardless of age during an ARS 36-787 public health emergency (which we are still in). That means that we can definitely use pharmacists to roll our COVID vaccine to all kids 5 years old and up, supplementing the vaccination that’ll will be happening in pediatric offices, community health centers and other clinics.

On the other hand, pharmacies have been super-busy with Pfizer booster shots and influenza vaccine in the last couple weeks. While the demand for Pfizer boosters will likely want at some point in November, the Influenza vaccine demand will remain brisk. Also, both Janssen (J&J) and Moderna have asked the FDA for booster EUAs (J&J is just another dose of the existing vaccine, Moderna is 1/2 dose of their existing vaccine). That authorization may come in at about the same time as the pediatric vaccine EUA for Pfizer, putting additional demand on pharmacies.

On top of that, Arizona pharmacies have been increasingly understaffed and many have been cutting back on the hours that they are open. Some patients are saying their medications aren’t being filled in a timely manner. It’s unclear how widespread the staffing issues are, but this article in the Arizona Republic by Stephanie Innes reports troubling problems that suggest pharmacies may not be a good Plan B site for vaccinations after all.

That brings me to using school-based and off site community clinics to roll out vaccine. It’s looking more and more like we will need community based clinics to get kids 5-11 years old vaccinated quickly in November. Because of the staffing issues and demand for boosters and flu shots at pharmacies, community clinics will be needed. The county health departments and/or the school districts will need to contract with community vaccinators to set those up.

The bottom line is that we need to get the plans in place now so that we’re ready for November 5 when it’ll be all hands-on-deck to meet the demand for getting elementary school kids vaccinated.

So far, we’ve heard very little from the Arizona Department of Health Services about what their plans are.

That needs to change, pronto.

November 9, 2021: Join Us at AzPHA’s Annual Awards Party!

Each year the Arizona Public Health Association has a special awards event in which we recognize people across Arizona who are performing extraordinary work to improve public health in Arizona
Join us for AzPHA‘s annual award event as we recognize Arizonans that stood up for truth, evidence, and good public policy during the pandemic
Tuesday, November 9, 2021

5:00pm – 8:30pm

University Club of Phoenix (Outdoors)

39 E Monte Vista Rd, Phoenix, AZ 85004

Tickets Sold Out!

Meet Our Awardees!
Tickets are only $40 and include hosted appetizers and 2 drink tickets for wine, beer or soft drinks
Note: This is a celebration, not a fundraiser, so we won’t be hitting you up for contributions!
Awards to Include:

Policy Maker of the Year

This award is given annually to an individual or organization that works to create policy that improves public health in Arizona. 

The Senator Andy Nichols Award

The Senator Andy Nichols Award honors those who have made outstanding contributions to public health throughout their career. 

The Cele Cohen Nursing Award

The Cele Cohen Nursing Award recognizes a public health or community health nurse who has made an outstanding contribution to public health in Arizona. 

The Elsie Eyer Commitment to Underserved People Award

The Elsie Eyer Commitment to Underserved People Award recognizes an individual or organization that has demonstrated a sustained effort in assuring the delivery of health services to underserved populations in Arizona.

The Harold B Woodward Award

The Harold B Woodward Award is given for work done for the advancement or betterment of the Arizona Public Health Association. 

The Lloyd E. Burton Scholarship

The Lloyd E. Burton Scholarship is given to a student enrolled in an undergraduate or graduate public health program at an Arizona university or college. 

Health Education Awards

Health Education Awards Recognizes the creation of outstanding health education or patient education materials. Award categories are Governmental and Nongovernmental.

New! Pete Wertheim Public Health Leadership Award

Pete Wertheim Public Health Leadership Award recognizes an individual who demonstrates exemplary leadership and goes above expectations to address public health needs or challenges and exemplifies innovative approaches to improving public health in Arizona.

Public Health Research Award

Public Health Research Award This award recognizes an individual or team whose research contributes to the advancement of public health science and/or practice in Arizona.

Corporate Public Health Service Award

This award may be presented annually to a company or organization which makes a significant contribution and/or innovation to public health in Arizona. Eligible recipients are health or non health related nonprofits or for profit companies or organizations.

State Health Department Releases a List of Zip Codes That Have Been “Disproportionately Affected by the Enforcement of Arizona Marijuana Laws”

Agency Fails to Release their Methodology (at Least So Far)

When voters approved the new Adult Use Marijuana law last November they required the ADHS to establish a social equity program that would provide an opportunity for people that live in areas that have been “disproportionately affected by the enforcement of Arizona Marijuana Laws” an opportunity to qualify for a license to run a marijuana store (all the other stores are converted medical marijuana dispensaries).

In total, the ADHS will be issuing a couple of dozen additional marijuana licenses to persons who qualify under the social equity program.

The language that the voters approved told the agency to give preference to person that live in areas that have long suffered from over-policing and over-prosecuting for possessing small amounts of marijuana.

Last Friday, ADHS released the set of Zip Codes that they believe qualify as having been over policed and over prosecuted. Interestingly, they didn’t provide a map or disclose the criteria that they used to make the decision. Puzzling why they would release the list with no description of the methodology or data sets that they used.

For me, this is an important development, because it’s the first time that I’m aware of that the State of Arizona has officially conceded that certain parts of the state have been disproportionately suffering from over-policing and over-prosecuting, with important social justice consequences.

Dr. Gerald’s Weekly Epi & Hospital Occupancy Report: Transmission Remains High; Access to Care in AZ Hospitals Remains Restricted

View the Full Report

Arizona continues to experience high levels of community transmission with case rates now plateaued instead of consistently improving. Test positivity remains stubbornly high reminding us that test capacity, accessibility, and/or uptake is inadequate to meet public health needs. 

With waning vaccine efficacy and a potentially short duration of acquired immunity, the unvaccinated cannot “free ride” on high levels of community immunity. Instead, they will almost certainly become infected. This means that persistently high levels of transmission, and more importantly hospitalizations, are possible for an extended time until the supply of unvaccinated, previously uninfected adults is exhausted.

Vaccination remains the most important public health priority to reduce transmission and severe illness; however, mask mandates, restrictions on indoor gatherings, and targeted business mitigations are still needed to reduce/control transmission in the short-run with the primary goal being to prevent overwhelming our critical care facilities and reducing pressure for vaccine-escape variants.

Recent reports indicate that vaccine immunity to infection falls against the Delta variant by 6 months. Accordingly, it is becoming more likely that the Delta variant could sustain forward transmission even in a highly vaccinated community without additional boosters or other non-pharmacologic interventions.

Because immunity against severe illness is much longer lasting, infections among the vaccinated will have less impact on individuals and communities. This provides hope of an end-game where we can (mostly) live with SARS-CoV-2.

COVID-19 hospital occupancy is slowly improving. Nevertheless, occupancy is likely to exceed 20% of all beds in the general ward and 25% of beds in the ICU for another week or so. Access to care will remain restricted; therefore, delays in elective (non emergency) procedures will persist in the face of staff shortages in inpatient and outpatient settings.

Weekly COVID-19 deaths now exceed 200 per week and will almost certainly reach 300 for the week ending September 5th and perhaps September 12th too before receding.

U.S. Treasury Department Scolds Doug Ducey for Using Federal Relief Funds to Discourage Schools from Requiring Masks

 Treasury Department Demanding Answers
Read the Letter from the Treasury Department to Ducey

Just when you thought you’d seen the limits of the governor’s poor decision-making, he goes a step further. Back in August, he went so far as to misuse federal funds to provide financial incentives for K-12 schools to ignore CDC COVID mitigation recommendations. In a second Executive Order, he offered $7K per pupil in federal money to families that live in districts following CDC mitigation measures.

Let’s start with the school bribery scheme.

In that E.O. the governor offers to increase per pupil funding by $1,800 per year for schools that ignore CDC mitigation measures (universal masking).

Now on to the scheme where parents get $7,000 ‘cash on the barrelhead’ if they live in a district that is following CDC mitigation measures and they don’t want to send their kid there because of that.

Fortunately, the U.S Department of Treasury has been keeping a close eye on Governors that are misusing federal funds, including Governor Ducey. Today, the Treasury Department sent Doug Ducey a letter telling him that spending federal COVID relief funds for things that discourage compliance with evidence-based solutions for stopping the spread of COVID-19 is not permissible. The letter closes by demanding that the Governor “… describe how the State will “remediate the issues identified with the two programs”.

Here is an excerpt from the sternly worded admonishment letter:

We are concerned that two recently created Arizona grant programs undermine evidence-based efforts to stop the spread of COVID-19. We understand that the State of Arizona has established a grant program for school districts with SLFRF funds that is conditioned on, among other things, the recipient school districts not requiring the use of face coverings during instructional hours and on school property.” In addition, we understand that the State of Arizona has established a school voucher program with SLFRF funds to provide up to $7,000 per student to families fortition or other educational costs at a new school that does not require face coverings if the students current school is requiring the use of face coverings during instructional hours and on school property.

The purpose of the SLFRF funds is to mitigate the fiscal effects stemming from the COVID-19 ‘public health emergency, including by supporting efforts to stop the spread of the virus.5 A program or service that imposes conditions on participation or acceptance of the service that would undermine efforts to stop the spreadofCOVID-19 or discourage compliance with evidence-based solutions for stopping the spread ofCOVID-19 is not a permissible use of SLERF funds.

Accordingly, Treasury requests that the State of Arizona provide a response describing how the State will remediate the issues identified with the two programs described above. Please submit your response to Jacob Leibenluft, Chief Recovery Officer at the Treasury Department, within 30 business days of receipt of this letter.

Failure to respond or remediate may result in administrative or other action, including as provided under Treasury’s Interim Final Rule.”

Ducey’s Childlike Response: Take Me to Court

In characteristic fashion, Governor Ducey dismissed the US Treasury Department’s demand that he remediate his harmful practice of bribing schools not to require universal classroom masking. His short statement back to Treasury was that he will not be responding to the letter, telling Treasury to take him to “court”.

That sounds silly, considering that all federal grants come with certain conditions, conditions that Governor Ducey has broken. Remedies for failure to comply with the terms and conditions of grants are usually administrative sanctions rather than legal ones.

In other words, since the federal government is a large distributor of funding to Arizona, a usual administrative remedy would be for the federal government to withhold additional federal funding until the state demonstrates that it will stay in compliance with future terms and conditions by remediating his past non-compliance.

School Bribary Funds Disclosed

On Friday, Yana Kunichoff from the Arizona Republic disclosed which Arizona schools received funds under the governor’s program that is now under federal scrutiny. More than $109 million in federal COVID-19 relief funds has been allocated to 98 school districts and charter schools under that program, which was only available to districts without mask mandates.

You can search for which charter school chains and school districts received the cash in Yana’s article: School funding: Which schools got money from Ducey’s COVID-19 program? One thing that you’ll notice right away is the enormous amount of money that went to charter schools, especially the BASIS Charter Schools and others like it.