Dr. Gerald just finished this week’s COVID epidemiology and hospital capacity report. You can review the full report here.
The joint US, ASU, NAU modeling team also sent the ADHS a letter with a call to action given the impending crisis. You can view that memo here. Sadly, most of have extremely low expectations that this evidence will be taken into consideration by the Department or the executive branch as a whole.
It should be no surprise that the news is grim. For several weeks now, his reports have had increasingly troubling findings. Nevertheless, there have been no policy interventions to mitigate the coming hospital capacity crisis. Below is his narrative summary- but make sure to view the full report.
The ASU Covid-19 forecasting group detected a recent acceleration in viral transmission that predicts an earlier exhaustion of hospital beds. This does not take into consideration the potential impact of holiday travel, social gatherings, and commerce.
Given that the cost of inaction is so high and our policymakers have been so slow to respond, I am growing ever more concerned that we will stumble into the Christmas holidays unprepared. While targeted measures might have sufficiently slowed transmission weeks ago, I believe shelter-in-place orders offer the most certain chance to achieve the improvements needed. Of course, these restrictions would impose substantial economic consequences. Therefore, they must be accompanied by economic relief to ensure businesses and families do not unnecessarily sacrifice for the greater good.
While I am not naive to reality that such measures are unlikely, I am ever more frustrated by our continued inaction which raises the costs and the consequences for all Arizona residents. This is made worse by the fact that it was predicted and preventable. To lose control with an effective vaccine imminent makes it even more bitter.
**NOTICE** Arizona is experiencing a public health crisis where access to critical care services is limited due to shortages of space, personnel, and critical supplies. If not addressed within the next 2 – 3 weeks, this crisis will evolve into a humanitarian crisis leading to hundreds of preventable deaths. At this point, only shelter-in-place restrictions are certain to quickly and sufficiently curtail viral transmission. Because such restrictions impose substantial economic hardships, these measures should be augmented by state expansion of programs to provide direct economic assistance, reduce food insecurity, prevent foreclosure and evictions, and protect access to health services.
