Kennedy’s Changes to the Childhood Vaccine Schedule: Less Disruption Than the Headlines Suggest (for now)

Earlier this week, Kennedy changed the childhood vaccine schedule issued by the CDC. Given Kennedy’s long history of discouraging childhood immunization and making false claims about vaccine safety, it wasn’t a surprise that Kennedy used his power of the state to reduce the number of recommended vaccines.

His changes aren’t evidence based and run counter to decades of clinical evidence and public-health practice… but they really just change how vaccines are categorized, not whether they’re available, covered by health insurance or required for preschool / K-12.

How changes to the federal vaccine schedule will affect Arizona
What Didn’t Change
  • Insurance coverage and reimbursement aren’t changing.
  • Most clinicians are unlikely to change how they practice.
  • Arizona’s preschool & K-12 vaccine requirements stay the same.

The following vaccines are still universally recommended by CDC, widely accepted clinically, and are still required for school entry (except for HPV which isn’t required for schools).

  • Measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR)
  • Polio
  • Diphtheria, tetanus, and pertussis (DTaP)
  • Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib)
  • Pneumococcal disease
  • Human Papilloma Virus
  • Varicella (chickenpox)
What Did Change

Rather than removing vaccines entirely, Kennedy shifted several vaccines out of the “routine universal recommendation” category and into “risk-based” or “shared clinical decision-making” buckets. Vaccines no longer universally recommended but still must be covered with no co-pay include:

  • Rotavirus
  • Influenza (flu)
  • Hepatitis A
  • Hepatitis B
  • Meningococcal disease (ACWY and B)
  • Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV)
  • COVID-19

 Hepatitis A is now on the ‘high-risk’ list but will still be paid for by insurance and the VFC program and will remain a requirement for preschool entry in Arizona (with medical and religious exemptions, but no personal exemption).

Meningococcal vaccines were moved to the ‘shared clinical decision making’ list but are still covered by insurance and VFC and are still required for middle school entry.

Hepatitis B, RSV, and meningococcal vaccines are now recommended only for specific at-risk populations rather than all children, but most pediatricians follow the American Academy of Pediatrics recommended schedule and will continue to recommend and administer them to their patients.

Kennedy’s changes run counter to decades of clinical evidence and public-health practice, but they’re about how vaccines are categorized, not whether they exist or are available and covered.

Vaccine Coverage Unchanged

One of the biggest misconceptions following this announcement is that families will suddenly face new costs or coverage barriers. That’s not the case.

  • Commercial insurance plans must still cover childhood vaccines with first-dollar coverage, regardless of whether a vaccine is listed as universal, risk-based, or shared clinical decision-making.
  • Medicaid coverage stays unchanged through the Vaccines for Children (VFC) program.
  • The same is true for the Indian Health Service.

In short, vaccines are still paid for, accessible, and available at no cost to families.

Most Clinicians Won’t Change Their Practice

Another reality check: most pediatricians, family physicians, and primary care providers are not going to follow Kennedy’s guidance. Clinicians understand that these changes are not grounded in scientific evidence. They know that these vaccines have a tremendous public health and personal health value and are among the most rigorously tested medical interventions, with extensive clinical trials and a robust post-market safety monitoring system.

In practice, most providers will keep recommending and administering vaccines the same way they always have.

Why it Still Matters

Even though the practical and immediate impact of these specific changes are limited they will most likely lead to a further erosion in childhood immunization rates.

Why? Because moving vaccines out of the universal category sends a signal to uninformed and hesitant parents that the vaccines on the high risk and joint clinical decision-making list are optional or less important. Over time that’ll lead to higher exemption rates and lower community protection, particularly for diseases like meningococcal infection and hepatitis A.

Still, the delivery system for childhood vaccines in Arizona is still intact. All these vaccines will still be covered by health insurance and VFC. The Arizona school vaccine requirements stay intact.

Yet, Kennedy’s action will lower vaccination rates and create more outbreaks and bad and even fatal outcomes.

What’s truly chilling is that Kennedy is just getting started and has 3 more years to use his authority to undermine vaccination using his sweeping powers. That will come as his ACIP members continue to change their recommendations.

More about that in my next piece.

AZPHA Member Breakfast & Learn American Indian Health Education Center (AHEC) Workforce Development

Friday, January 9, 2026

9am – 10am


Our Speakers: Brooke Rector & Angel Sanchez

Brooke Rector
Brooke Rector is the Youth Program Coordinator for AIH-AHEC, where she works to expand health career opportunities for Native students, address the underrepresentation of Native professionals in healthcare, and help alleviate workforce shortages. She leads the Youth Career Pathways Program, collaborating with tribal leaders, elders, and healthcare institutions to ensure that training is grounded in traditional knowledge while incorporating modern medical practices.

Brooke also coordinates summer programs, health clubs, and student resources that provide youth with hands-on exposure to careers in medicine, nursing, public health, and allied health fields. She is passionate about promoting health across Arizona, particularly among youth and underserved communities.

Angel Sanchez
Angel Sanchez is the Academic Pathways Coordinator for AIH-AHEC. He holds a Bachelor of Public Health from Arizona State University and a Master of Public Health from the University of Arizona. Angel previously worked as a Student Support Specialist at ASU’s College of Health Solutions.

In his current role, he supports high school and college students pursuing careers in healthcare and public health, applying his knowledge of healthcare policy and administration to strengthen Tribal communities and address workforce needs across Arizona.

Register Here

Crime-Free Lease Addendums Hurt AZ  Families: UA Students Develop Advocacy Plan to Fight Back

Across Arizona renters are being told they have to sign something called a “crime-free lease addendum” in order to close their lease. On the surface, some may say the concept sounds fine.

In practice, crime-free lease addendums are a tool landlords use to summarily evict tenants they don’t like with almost no due process. And that has bad public-health consequences for low-income families.

What’s a Crime-Free Lease Addendum?

A signed crime-free lease addendum allows a landlord to almost immediately evict a tenant by simply claiming that the tenant or sometimes a guest did something illegal – even if they have no evidence.

Landlords don’t even need to show that there was a police or arrest report, charges or a conviction. There doesn’t even need to be evidence!

Arizona Republic’s Hannah Dreyfus’ Series:

What renters in Arizona should know about crime-free lease addendums

Landlords executing these ‘addendums’ usually focus on drug use. They often allege a tenant used illegal drugs, even something like “magic mushrooms” & use that allegation to summarily evict their tenant.

Eviction can happen at once even if rent is paid on time and the tenant has followed every term in the lease.

How ‘Crime-Free Lease Addendums’ Fuel Homelessness & Heat Deaths – AZ Public Health Association

Eviction Is Already Easy in Arizona

Arizona law already strongly favors landlords. Under the Arizona Residential Landlord and Tenant Act, a tenant can be evicted in as little as 30 days for being just five days late on rent.

Crime-free lease addendums supercharge evictions by making them even faster. They turn unproven accusations into grounds for immediate displacement.

Evictions Are a Public-Health Issue

Housing is one of the most important social determinants of health. When people lose stable housing, the health effects are immediate and severe.

Evictions—especially sudden ones—can lead to:

  • job loss when people can’t get to work
  • kids missing school or being forced to change schools
  • loss of housing aid
  • increased stress, anxiety, and depression
  • higher risk of heat illness and death, especially during Arizona summers

Families already struggling with low wages, rising rents, or health issues are hit the hardest.

Recent Arizona reporting has shown that tenants can lose housing aid even when landlords later drop eviction cases. That means a single allegation — again never proven — can permanently damage a family’s ability to stay housed.

Once someone has an eviction on their record, it becomes much harder to find another place to live. The result is a cycle that pushes families closer to homelessness, not stability.

UA Students Step Up: A Blueprint for Change

Last semester, students Grady Campbell, Levonia Cellicion, Callie Haggerty, Stephanie Hernandez, Liz Olivarez, Mariah Quinn, and Dora Valencia
at the UA Mel & Enid Zuckerman College of Public Health in Dr. Maia Ingram’s class took on this issue head-on. 
Collaborating with community partners, they developed a statewide advocacy plan to reduce or end the use of crime-free lease addendums in Arizona.

UA Student Advocacy Plan to Reduce Crime Free Lease Addendums

Their plan is practical, thoughtful, and grounded in public-health principles. It includes:

  • Clear policy goals, like limiting evictions based on unproven allegations
  • Education strategies to inform renters about their rights before they sign a lease
  • Legislative approaches to bring fairness and due process back into housing law
  • Coalition-building among public-health groups, housing advocates, legal aid organizations and renters
  • Messaging strategies that center health, fairness, and family stability

Most importantly, the students framed housing stability as a health issue, not just a legal or economic one.

Thanks to the leadership of University of Arizona students, we now have a clear roadmap for how Arizona can do better. Our current work centers on identifying a sponsor to run the legislation.

 

Arizona Public Health Association Announces New Board Members for 2026

Arizona Public Health Association Announces Newly Appointed Board Members for 2026

Phoenix, AZ (Jan 1, 2026) —  The Arizona Public Health Association (AzPHA) is proud to announce the appointment of five distinguished professionals to its Board of Directors for the 2026 term. These new Board members bring a wealth of experience in public health, policy, education, and community engagement, further strengthening AzPHA’s mission to achieve optimal, equitable health and well-being for all Arizonans.

“On behalf of AzPHA and our more than 900 members, I am delighted to welcome our new Board members. We are grateful for their willingness to step up and serve,” shared Will Humble, MPH, Executive Director of AzPHA. “Public health is truly a team sport, and their leadership will be instrumental in protecting health, advancing equity, strengthening communities across Arizona, and enhancing professional development for our state’s public health workforce.”

Elena Burr, MPH, Director of Communications & Outreach at AllThrive 365, will serve as Director of Communications. She leads strategic communications, branding, and public engagement initiatives for one of Arizona’s largest aging services organizations. Elena serves as the Chair of the Arizona Health Equity Conference Planning Committee and holds a Master of Public Health from the University of Arizona.

Charity Moparthy, graduate student at the University of Arizona, will serve as Student Representative. She is pursuing a Master of Public Health with a focus on Health Policy and Management from the University of Arizona and brings hands-on experience in research coordination, student engagement, and community outreach, with a deep commitment to health equity and amplifying youth voices.

Lora Timmons, DHPE, MPH, Dean for Nursing, Healthcare and Wellness at GateWay Community College, will serve as Director of Professional Development & Academic Relations. With a Doctorate in Health Professions Education and a Master of Public Health, Dr. Timmons has a proven track record in increasing student success, developing new academic programs, and fostering industry partnerships. She is a certified experiential educator and has served on numerous advisory boards and committees dedicated to advancing public health education.

Felicia Trembath, PhD, MPH, Assistant Professor at Midwestern University, will serve as Vice President. Dr. Trembath is a respected public health scholar and educator. She holds a PhD in Epidemiology and Master of Public Health, and her research and leadership have focused on infectious disease prevention, health promotion, and academic excellence. She is a recipient of the prestigious Health System Integration Program Fellowship with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Helena Whitney, MSW, Senior Vice President of Policy and Advocacy at the Arizona Hospital and Healthcare Association, will serve as Director at Large. She holds a Master of Social Work from Arizona State University and brings over two decades of experience in Medicaid and healthcare policy, government relations, and public health consulting. Helena has held senior roles in legislative affairs, led statewide health assessments, and developed innovative programs to improve health equity and behavioral health outcomes.

For more information about AzPHA and its Board of Directors, visit azpha.org.

About the Arizona Public Health Association

Founded in 1928, the Arizona Public Health Association (AzPHA) is a nonprofit membership organization dedicated to improving the health and well-being of all Arizonans. AzPHA brings together public health professionals, students, advocates, and community members to advance sound public health policy, promote health equity, and strengthen the public health workforce. Through education, advocacy, and collaboration, AzPHA works to ensure that every community in Arizona has the opportunity to thrive. For more information, visit azpha.org

Arizona Grant Opportunities (Compiled by Vitalyst Health Foundation)

NEW Due November 30th: Emergency Grants (Visual and Performing Arts and Poets)

NEW Due November 30th: Truist Foundation (Economic Mobility and Small Businesses)

NEW Due December 3rd: Short-Term Crisis & Emergency Resources Grant Program (Pima County)

Due December 10th: Small Business Grant (for-profit)

Due December 12th: Aunt Rita’s Foundation Partner Agency Grant (HIV/AIDS)

Due December 15th: Transformation of Mental Health Care Program

Due December 15th: Sundt Foundation

Due December 15th: Shade Structure Grant

NEW Due December 19th: 2026 Breakthrough Fund

NEW Due December 19th: Pima County Outside Agency (OA) Program

NEW Due December 19th: Literacy Arts Funds

NEW Due December 31st: Spark Good Local Grants

Due December 31st: Mishler Brown Fund (Preserving Heritage. Advancing Agriculture.)

Due December 31st: Earth Rising Foundation (Climate Change)

NEW Due January 8th: Opportunity Grants (Children; Pima County)

NEW Due February 2nd: Democracy Innovation Lab

NEW Due March 12th: Climate Smart Communities Initiative

Ongoing: DICK’s Sporting Goods (Youth and Sports)

Ongoing: DRK Foundation (Early-Stage Social Impact)

Ongoing: First Citizens Bank (Workforce Development, Financial Education, and Homebuyer/Homeowner Counseling)

Ongoing: Oak Foundation

Ongoing: Hometown Grants (Rural)

Ongoing: Fuel Your Impact (Women)

Ongoing: Grassroots Organizing (National Grant Program)

Ongoing: Community Heart & Soul Seed Grant Program

Ongoing: Arizona Housing Fund 

Ongoing: Arizona Together for Impact Fund

______________________ 

 

Rural Health Transformation Grants: Small, Conditional & With a Poison Pill

Kennedy & Oz announced the grant awards for the Rural Health Transformation program last week… funds allocated by Congress as political cover for the deep Medicaid cuts enacted in HR 1, which will hit rural hospitals and providers hard beginning in 2027.

While Arizona was awarded $167M (out of the $200M we applied for), this short-term grant funding is nowhere close to offsetting the big financial losses rural hospitals will experience once HR 1’s Medicaid changes take effect.

Feds shortchanged state on rural health, Gov. Hobbs says

NOTE: Kennedy and Oz’s grant award formula greatly favored deep red states, with Alaska receiving $368 per person. Next are WY at $353 per person. By contrast, Arizona is getting just $22 per capita.  California gets a paltry $6 per person.

Arizona Submits Rural Health Transformation Grant Application to Feds – AZ Public Health Association

RHT Program State Project Abstracts

Arizona’s original application emphasized two priorities that matter deeply to rural communities: building a durable rural health workforce and improving access to care. That focus is still sound even as the overall funding level doesn’t.

CMS Announces $50B in Awards to Strengthen Rural Health Focusing Mostly on Red States

Workforce Development

The most important and most lasting part of Arizona’s proposal is our emphasis on workforce development. The state requested $57M per year for 5 years to support education, training, recruitment, and retention strategies for rural health professionals.

According to our application, the Rural Health Workforce Development and Training Program is designed to recruit and keep clinicians and allied health professionals through:

  • High school and Career and Technical Education pathways
  • Expanded rural clinical rotations and residency programs
  • Financial incentives such as stipends, commuting aid, and relocation support
  • Training and upskilling tied to rural service commitments

The proposal also recognizes a critical reality: retention matters just as much as recruitment. Long commutes, housing shortages, professional isolation, and burnout regularly drive clinicians out of rural practice.

Arizona got $167 million of the $200 million requested and it’s unclear  which elements of the application were cut. One can only hope that the workforce development components were preserved. They’re the most strategic part of the plan and the piece most likely to deliver long-term value beyond the life of the grant.

Stabilizing Fragile Systems

Beyond workforce development, Arizona’s plan includes a Priority Health Initiative focused on behavioral health and substance use disorder treatment, chronic disease prevention and management, and maternal, fetal, and infant health.

The proposal also aims to expand telehealth infrastructure, support mobile and satellite care models, and reduce administrative strain on rural providers through subsidized electronic health record licenses and shared back-office support services that many small rural clinics can’t afford on their own.

Funds will flow through subawards and cooperative agreements to rural hospitals and clinics, local governments, educational institutions, and community-based organizations. The state also plans to invest in secure data systems, dashboards, and fiscal tracking tools to meet federal accountability requirements.

Grants Can’t Replace Medicaid

Sadly, workforce planning or telehealth investment can compensate for deep, structural Medicaid cuts. HR 1 will reduce coverage and reimbursement in ways that directly threaten rural hospital solvency. RHT grants may smooth the edges temporarily, but they’re not a substitute for stable, predictable Medicaid financing.

Ideology Permeates the Program

Oz said this week these grants may come with strings that go way beyond rural health transformation. Oz said he and Kennedy intend to reassess state funding annually and “claw back” RHT dollars if states fail to fully embrace the administration’s broader agenda, including anti-vaccine positions and nutrition initiatives like restricting what foods can be purchased with SNAP benefits.

Oz and Kennedy basically are saying that the RHT funds are a compliance tool to force states to risk having to pay back RHT money they’ve already invested if they don’t adopt Kennedy’s politically driven (and non-evidence based) policies that have nothing to do with rural care delivery.

Oz’s threat to claw back funds already spent if he thinks the state’s governor isn’t enthusiastically adopting Kennedy’s agenda is sabotage, but maybe the courts will intervene if Oz and Kennedy follow through with their threats.

Oversight?

Implementation matters. Oversight of Arizona’s RHT funds will rest with the Arizona Office of Economic Opportunity, a small, roughly 10-person office housed in the Governor’s Office rather than a state agency.

While the grant application says there will be coordination with agencies that already manage workforce and Medicaid programs, capacity is a real concern for me.

Given the scale and complexity of these funds, it would make sense to give direct responsibility to AHCCCS and ADHS which have more mature procurement, compliance, and accountability infrastructure.

Hopefully the Office of Economic Opportunity has more capacity than meets the eye. Time will tell.

Note: Revised RHT Grant 2026  
Revised RHT Grant Budget Chart

 

How Arizona’s Medical Debt Proposition (209) is Helping Families’ Health

In November 2022, Arizona voters overwhelmingly approved Proposition 209, the Predatory Debt Collection Protection Act which protect families from spiraling medical debt and aggressive collection practices.

Prop 209 passed by a remarkable 72 % to 28 % margin, showing strong bipartisan support across the state.

AzPHA vocally supported the measure and went up against debt buyers and sellers during the campaign.

What Prop 209 Did

Prop 209 put in place common-sense reforms that matter for health and economic stability:

  • Capped the interest rate on medical debt at the lesser of 3 % per year or the weekly average one-year Treasury yield, significantly how fast medical debt grows.
  • Expanded exemptions from debt collection including higher protections for home equity, vehicles, bank accounts, and household goods so that families are less likely to lose those when a medical emergency strikes.
  • Reduced wage garnishment exposure so that only up to 10 % of disposable earnings can be taken to pay unsecured debts, leaving more income available for rent, food, and care.

Hobbs’ Action: Cancelling Medical Debt Using Federal Funds

Last week Governor Katie Hobbs recently announced a medical debt cancellation initiative that brings real relief to nearly 500,000 Arizonans with medical debt. The creative plan used federal pandemic relief funds to buy up and cancel medical debt at one penny on the dollar.

Because medical debt portfolios can be bought for a fraction of their face value, state dollars go far  often buying down hundreds of dollars of debt for every dollar spent… which is why the debt could be bought for so cheap.

Debt cancellation through this initiative offers real, measurable gains:

  • Improved access to care: Without overwhelming debt hanging over them, families are more likely to seek preventive care and fill prescriptions lowering long-term health risks.
  • Reduced stress: Financial strain is a well-documented risk factor for poorer mental and physical health. Eliminating medical debt can lessen chronic stress and its associated harm.
  • Greater economic stability: With wage garnishment reduced and debt erased, families keep more income for essentials such as housing, utilities, and food — all critical social determinants of health.
  • Preservation of assets: Prop 209’s exemptions, paired with debt cancellation, mean families are less likely to lose a car, home, or savings due to an emergency health event.

Proposition 209 and the Hobbs’ debt-buyout program represent a two-pronged strategy: one prevention-oriented (through reforming debt collection law) and one relief-oriented (through targeted cancellation).

Editorial Note: The timing of Hobbs debt buyout comes just as people who get their health insurance via the Marketplace are making decisions about their plans. Because the enhanced advanced premium tax credits are now gone – many will be buying high-deductible bronze plans – which are often the source of medical debt… people who buy high-deductible plans to reduce their premium.

Who Did More Harm to Public Health in 2025  Kennedy or Rubio?

For much of 2025, public-health debates in the United States have focused on the damage being caused by Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. with his reckless vaccine policy decisions, deep funding cuts, the wholesale firing of experienced public-health professionals across HHS agencies, and the loss of trust in public health institutions like the CDC.

His actions weakened domestic health protections and further eroded trust in science, evidence-based decision-making, and the scientific method itself.

But even accounting for all of Kennedy’s harm, the most destructive public-health decision of 2025 didn’t come from his agency. It came from the Secretary of State Rubio via elimination of the U.S. Agency for International Development.

That decision will cost more lives, undermine more health systems, and increase global health risk more than any other public health policy choice made this year. It also delivered a severe blow to America’s ability to lead through diplomacy.

USAID Provided Key Global Public Health Infrastructure

For decades, USAID was one of the most important public-health institutions on the planet, arguably more consequential than the World Health Organization or the Gates Foundation. It served as a core pillar of global disease prevention and health-system stability. Today, it’s gone.

USAID funded (and held partners accountable for) infectious-disease surveillance, HIV treatment, tuberculosis, malaria prevention, maternal and child health services, clean water and sanitation systems, nutrition programs for mothers and infants, vaccine delivery infrastructure, and health workforce training in developing nations.

USAID’s work stopped outbreaks before they became pandemics. It reduced mass displacement. It stabilized regions where collapsing health systems fuel hunger, conflict, and migration. It improved women’s health, helped families plan their futures, and helped entire populations escape poverty.

USAID focused on upstream prevention on a global scale. It was also one of our most effective tools for building diplomatic influence.

Hard Power, Soft Power & Why USAID Mattered

In international affairs, countries project power in two ways. Hard power relies on forces like military strength, sanctions and the threat of punishment. Soft power relies on trust, humanitarian aid, scientific cooperation, and being seen as a reliable partner acting in good faith.

USAID was a key to U.S. soft power. When we helped countries prevent disease, strengthen health systems and keep children alive and families out of poverty, it built credibility. We earned cooperation and trust. It made our leadership legitimate.

Rubio’s elimination of USAID dismantled global public health infrastructure and dramatically weakened our soft power… broadcasting that the U.S. is transactional, unreliable, and disinterested in shared global responsibility.

That erosion of trust will obviously make cooperation during future emergencies more difficult. It will even make collaboration more difficult when a future administration wants to restore the U.S.’ role as an international force for good.

The Damage Is Underway

Thanks to Secretary Rubio disease surveillance is collapsing, meaning outbreaks are detected later or not at all. Interruptions in HIV and tuberculosis treatment are fueling drug resistance, which will inevitably reach us as well.

Gaps in maternal and child health services are translating into preventable deaths. Weakening vaccine infrastructure invites the return of diseases that were on the decline.

Who Owns This Decision

Responsibility for the decision is clear. As Secretary of State, Rubio presided over, defended, and even trumpeted the dismantling of USAID. President Trump supported it. Elon Musk helped drive the ideological thrust that made it possible.

Together, they reframed global public health as expendable “foreign aid” rather than what it is: a frontline defense against disease, instability, humanitarian catastrophe… and a key source of U.S. soft power.

What History Will Remember

Kennedy has done plenty of damage to public health in 2025. But history will judge the elimination of USAID as something worse: an abdication of public health responsibility trading several decades of disease prevention and diplomacy in exchange for personal ambition and professional survival.

History will remember Rubio’s decision as an abandonment of global public health and soft power, not dollars “saved.”

Congress Fails to Extend Enhanced Health Insurance Tax Credits

The clock has run out for folks hoping Congress will help make their Marketplace health insurance more affordable.

Even though a small number of Republicans in the US House recently joined Democrats to support a discharge petition to force a vote on extending the enhanced premium tax credits (none from AZ including Ciscomani), it came too late to matter for next year.

Speaker Mike Johnson has refused to bring the bill to the floor, and under House rules, any vote wouldn’t happen until January.

Health plans that start January 1, 2026 are already priced and no longer include the former enhanced advance premium tax credits. 

Even if the House acts in January, it’s doubtful the Senate would follow. The practical result is straightforward: the enhanced premium tax credits are almost certainly gone.

As a result, Marketplace premiums will rise a lot for most of the 350,000 or so Arizonans who buy Marketplace health insurance.

Those former enhanced subsidies mainly helped people earning between 138% and 400% of the federal poverty level, working adults who don’t qualify for Medicaid and don’t get insurance through a job.

The impact will be different depending on how much the person or family makes.

  • People closer to 138% of poverty will see the largest percentage increases in premiums.
  • People between 300% and 400% of poverty will face large dollar increases — often hundreds of dollars more per month.

Folks will now be making various choices depending on their values and family circumstances. I can think of 4 different ways this will affect Marketplace customers:

  • They’ll drop coverage altogether, gambling that they won’t get sick or injured. Healthier and younger people will disproportionately choose this option – further damaging the risk pool and making premiums go up in the long run.
  • They’ll downgrade plans, moving from Gold or Silver to Bronze plans with lower premiums but sky-high deductibles.
  • They’ll pay more and cut back elsewhere, staying in the same plan category but sacrificing other household needs.
  • They’ll change jobs for insurance, giving up freelance work or small businesses to find employer-sponsored coverage.

ACA Premiums Set to Increase in 2026 as Enhanced Marketplace Premium Tax Credits Expire – AZ Public Health Association

The former enhanced premium tax credits have worked exactly as intended. KFF data show they helped drive record marketplace enrollment and made coverage affordable for middle-income families who were previously priced out.

This was a policy choice. Congress has chosen higher premiums, fewer insured people, a weakening of the risk pool leading to higher long term premiums, more medical debt and uncompensated emergency department care.

Remember that in November.    

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