Will Humble Disease Control, Vaccination, Wills Blog

This Year’s Flu Shot & What the New H3N2 Strain Could Mean

Every spring scientists pick which flu viruses to include in the Northern Hemisphere’s fall influenza vaccine. Today we’ll cover the latest influenza surveillance and the content of the 2025-2026 influenza vaccines in the US.

How is the content of the fall influenza vaccine decided? It’s a process that focuses on using the best evidence – but it has challenges because of the wildcards the Southern hemisphere can play during their winter (our summer).

Each spring CDC experts look at flu viruses from all around the world and decide which strains are most likely to circulate during our (Northern hemisphere) influenza season. They check:

  • which flu strains are spreading most,
  • how the viruses’ surface proteins (especially something called hemagglutinin, or HA) have changed,
  • whether existing immunity (from prior infection or vaccination) might not work as well.

Once the strain is selected (usually in March) vaccine makers start growing those picked strains (often in eggs). Because growing and distributing takes time, the vaccine formula has to be selected in the spring.

What Happened in the Southern Hemisphere

The wildcard is in the Southern hemisphere. Flu viruses keep evolving in places like Argentina, Brazil and Australia during our summer – even as US vaccine manufacturers are already making the fall season vaccine. That means a new strain can pop up down under during our summer – but it’s found too late to change what’s in our fall vaccine.

Because the vaccine choice has to be made before all possible changes occur, this means there’s always a bit of “leap of faith” involved.

What’s in the 2025‑26 Vaccine for the Northern Hemisphere

Here are the viruses the CDC recommended for this season (back in March):

  • An A/Victoria/4897/2022 (H1N1)pdm09‑like virus
  • An A/Darwin/9/2021 (H3N2)‑like virus
  • A B/Austria/1359417/2021‑like (B/Victoria lineage) virus

These were picked because they represented what scientists believed would be the most likely flu types to spread.

The New H3N2 Strain: What’s Going On?

As sometimes is the case – the virus evolved in the Southern Hemisphere over our summer (their winter). The new strain isn’t a huge change from what was predicted – but it is a bit different. The new strain is an H3N2 “subclade K” virus – and it’s recently popped up in Canada, the UK, Japan and Europe.

  • Subclade K has several new mutations compared to the H3N2 strain that was chosen for the vaccine.
  • Early data suggest this variant is already dominant in some regions (for example, the UK found high proportions of H3N2 being subclade K).
  • Because it appeared after the vaccine strain was picked—at the tail end of the Southern Hemisphere season—it may mean this year’s vaccine isn’t perfectly matched with what’s likely to circulate in AZ this winter.

What It Means for Vaccine Effectiveness

So, what do these changes mean for how well the vaccine will work? Here’s the assessment:

  • Because subclade K has drifted (i.e., mutated) away from the strain used in the vaccine, there’s a reduced match. That means the vaccine might be less effective in preventing mild or moderate illness compared to a perfectly matched season.
  • But… the influenza vaccines in pharmacies and doctors’ offices still offer important protection, especially against severe illness and hospitalization.
  • For example, early data from the UK show around 70‑75% effectiveness in children and 30‑40% in adults, even with this new K strain dominating circulation.

Bottom Line

  • The vaccine for 2025‑26 was chosen carefully, based on the best information that was available in March.
  • A new H3N2 variant (subclade K) showed up after the CDC’s recommendation for this year’s vaccine. It has more mutations than expected, so it might reduce vaccine effectiveness somewhat, but we don’t know that for sure yet.
  • If this year’s vaccine ends up being less effective than usual it doesn’t appear to be the fault of CDC or Kennedy this time – it’s because the new strain evolved after the vaccine decision was made (and had to be made).
  • Even if there’s some ‘immune escape’ because of the new subclade K virus, early data from the UK suggest it’s likely that the vaccine will still provide strong protection especially for children and seniors and for reducing hospitalizations.

See all the recommendations: Prevention and Control of Seasonal Influenza with Vaccines: Recommendations of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices — United States, 2025–26 Influenza Season | MMWR

Will Humble Professional Development, Wills Blog

Public Health Journalism this Week

RFK Jr.’s CDC spreads false facts about vaccines, autism, critics say

New AHCCCS director says she is ready to tackle fraudulent billing | Arizona Capitol Times

Eloy retirement community fights back against unexpected utility price hike | Arizona Capitol Times

Obamacare enrollment is open. But what will you pay?

Drowning top cause of death for Arizona children in 2024

E. coli outbreak could be tied to Arizona State Fair

 

Will Humble Community Health Workers, Wills Blog

SCC’s Community Health Worker Program Recruiting Students

Scottsdale Community College is excited to announce recruitment for the Community Health Worker (CHW) Program—an 18-credit certificate program designed to be completed in just over one semester. This program equips students with the knowledge and hands-on skills needed to serve as frontline health advocates within their communities and organizations.

For questions or additional information, please contact Angelica Bakalukas, Program Director, at angelica.bakalukas@scottsdalecc.edu.

Thank you for your continued partnership and support in strengthening Arizona’s healthcare workforce.

Will Humble Professional Development, Wills Blog

Grant Opportunities (Compiled by the Vitalyst Health Foundation)

November 12th: Healthy Brain Initiative Road Map Champions & Strategies (Dementia)

Due November 14th: CORE Grants (Southern Arizona)

Due November 14th: Comunidad Grants (Southern Arizona)

Due November 15th: Salad And Go Charities (Food)

Due November 21st: Season for Sharing Grant

NEW Due November 23rd: MEME Prize

NEW Due December 10th: Small Business Grant (for-profit)

NEW Due December 12th: Aunt Rita’s Foundation Partner Agency Grant (HIV/AIDS)

Due December 15th: Transformation of Mental Health Care Program

Due December 15th: Sundt Foundation

Due December 15th: Shade Structure Grant

Due December 31st: Mishler Brown Fund (Preserving Heritage. Advancing Agriculture.)

Due December 31st: Earth Rising Foundation (Climate Change)

Ongoing: W.K. Kellogg Foundation (Children and Family)

Ongoing: DRK Foundation (Early-Stage Social Impact)

Ongoing: First Citizens Bank (Workforce Development, Financial Education, and Homebuyer/Homeowner Counseling)

Ongoing: Oak Foundation

Ongoing: Hometown Grants (Rural)

Ongoing: Fuel Your Impact (Women)

Ongoing: Grassroots Organizing (National Grant Program)

Ongoing: Community Heart & Soul Seed Grant Program

Ongoing (until October 31st): Community Action Fund (Indigenous-led)

Ongoing: Arizona Housing Fund 

Ongoing: Arizona Together for Impact Fund

Will Humble Maternal Health, Wills Blog

AHCCCS Approves First Doula Group Practice

Spiritual Garden Healing Doula Services has officially become the first AHCCCS-approved doula group provider in Arizona — marking a major step forward in expanding access to culturally grounded, community-based birth support for Medicaid families.

Doula Care Reduces C-sections, Pre-term Birth & Cuts Birthing Costs by a Net $1,000 – AZ Public Health Association

Leveraging Doulas to Improve Birth Outcomes – AZ Public Health Association

After a several years advocacy effort by AZPHA, AHCCCS recently approved reimbursement for doula services beginning October 1, 2024, an important public health milestone (see article).

AHCCCS Preparing Reimburse for Doula Services: Comment Thru June 10 – AZ Public Health Association

They’re now building partnerships with hospitals, clinics, midwives, and managed care organizations to integrate doula services into care plans for expecting parents statewide. They expect to begin accepting AHCCCS clients at the end of the first quarter of 2026.

“Becoming the first AHCCCS-approved doula group isn’t just an accomplishment for us — it’s a victory for Arizona families seeking equitable, compassionate care” — Kay Clinton, Founder, Spiritual Garden Healing Doula Services.

What’s a Doula? A Professional Who Lowers Birth Costs and Improves Outcomes, that’s Who. | The University of Arizona Health Sciences

Will Humble Disease Control, Wills Blog

Responding to Arizona’s Measles Exposures: An Epidemiology Perspective

An alert clinician in Arizona quickly recognized a case of measles in someone – a good thing considering that the doc may not have ever seen a case during her or his residency or practice before. Maybe they have, if they are working on the Colorado Strip and have already seen some cases over the last couple of months.

The doc reported the case to their county health department – which began the public health response to the exposure to measles last week in Maricopa and Coconino Counties.

For county epidemiologists, this index report started a cascade of work in their mostly behind-the-scenes investigations. Their first task is to reconstruct the timeline. They need to know exactly when and where the contagious individual was as measles can spread four days before and after a rash appears and can linger in the air for up to two hours after an infected person leaves a room.

In this case, the timeline points suggest a single index case traveling between Phoenix and Flagstaff — possibly connected to outbreaks currently active in Utah and northern Arizona. I don’t know this for sure – just seems like the most likely scenario.

Next comes exposure assessment. Who is really at risk? Babies under 12–15 months (too young for their first MMR shot) are always a top concern.

Unvaccinated pregnant women are another priority. This was something of a teen-type concert I’m told (a singer named Tate McGraw).

Since the anti-vax movement has ramped up in the last 15 years it’s possible that some of the concert goers were susceptible unvaccinated teens. Outreach interventions come next.

Interestingly, directly contacting concert ticket holders rarely works. Past investigations have shown that email lists bounce, phone numbers are outdated, and tickets don’t always reflect attendance.

Instead, the team focuses on broader interventions: issuing public notices, sending Health Alert Network (HAN) advisories to local clinicians, and using Epi-X to notify providers in other states about potential exposures. Media coverage about the places where exposures happened are important too.

In the coming days, county epis will focus on active case finding, checking logs, watching clinics for anyone presenting with fever, cough, red eyes, or the characteristic measles rash, and preparing for potential secondary cases.

They’ll calculate incubation periods, plan follow-ups, and double-check that messaging reaches the right audiences (the best they can).

Phone calls, log or lab review, case investigations and contact tracing work and public and clinician advisories are important (and sometimes labor-intensive) steps in preventing new cases.

The work is detailed and mostly invisible to the public, but it’s exactly what stops a handful of exposures from snowballing into a full-blown outbreak.

In the end, this cluster of exposures is a reminder about how important it is for doctors and labs to report and for county epidemiologists to move fast, think strategically, and focus on evidence-based interventions where they can make the biggest impact.

Time will tell whether this exposure ends up snowballing or not. The key factors are how many unvaccinated persons were exposed, whether their cases get identified and reported fast, whether or not there’s prompt isolation of new cases and quarantine of unvaccinated exposed persons and how effectively exposed susceptible contacts are found (and whether they cooperate with quarantine recommendations).

What You Need to Know About Measles

  • Symptoms: High fever (101 °F or above), cough, runny nose, red/watery eyes, and a red blotchy rash starting on the face and spreading downward.
  • Who’s at risk: Infants under 12–15 months, unvaccinated children, and unvaccinated pregnant individuals. Adults with two doses of MMR are protected.
  • Exposure windows: Measles can spread four days before and four days after rash onset. The virus can linger in the air for up to two hours after an infected person leaves a space.
  • What to do if you were potentially exposed: Monitor for symptoms through November 27. If symptoms appear, call ahead to your healthcare provider before visiting to prevent the virus spreading..
  • Community impact: Measles is highly contagious (90% of unvaccinated people exposed may get infected) so staying up-to-date on vaccinations protects not just you, but your community.
Will Humble Affordable Care Act, Public Health Law, Wills Blog

What the New Funding Deal Means for Public Health

Congress just passed the Continuing Appropriations Act, 2026 to end the federal government shutdown and keep agencies running. The bill is a mix of short-term and long-term funding.

Some agencies are funded through September 30, 2026, while others only have temporary funding through January 30, 2026, under a continuing resolution (CR).

The deal keeps the government open and gives Congress more time to pass full-year spending bills—but it also means another potential shutdown could happen at the end of January if lawmakers can’t agree again.

Public Health

The CR keeps current funding levels for CDC, HRSA, NIH, SAMHSA and the EPA. These agencies can continue their work for now but could face funding uncertainty after January 30, 2026.

Funding for the National Health Service Corps, Community Health Centers, and Teaching Health Centers also continues at current levels through the same date. The Special Diabetes Program and certain emergency preparedness programs under the Pandemic and All-Hazards Preparedness Act were extended as well.

One good thing is that telehealth flexibilities for Medicare (which had recently expired) are now extended – but only through January 30, 2026. This gives patients, especially in rural areas, continued access to care from home and gives providers time to adjust to long-term telehealth policies, for now.

Sadly, extending enhanced advance premium tax credits weren’t in the package – meaning that Marketplace premiums are set to explode in 2026 as the enhanced tax credits expire. There was apparently a ‘handshake’ deal to take up the extension of those credits by the Senate leader Thune – but not the House Speaker. Basically, there is almost no chance the enhanced premium tax credits will be extended.

Health Insurance Marketplace Open for 2026 Coverage: Folks Should Wait to Commit until after the Tax Credit Issues are Resolved – AZ Public Health Association

Here’s the bullet listing of public health program funds that were extended – as is – through Jan. 30, 2026:

  • Community health centers
  • National Health Service Corps and teaching health centers
  • The Special Diabetes Program.
  • Some of the authorities of the Pandemic and All Hazards Preparedness Act.
    • It didn’t include provisions to reauthorize HPP, PHEP, or other public health programs – those still need to be reauthorized in the new year.
  • Extends Medicare telehealth flexibilities
  • The Sexual Risk Avoidance Education Program
  • The Personal Responsibility Education Program
  • Family-to-Family Health Information Centers.

Federal workforce

The Act directs federal agencies to restore staffing levels to what they were before the shutdown began. Agencies must also reimburse states for any costs they covered while federal funding was paused. Federal employees are protected from furloughs through January 30, 2026, and the bill instructs agencies ‘to spend cautiously’ and only focus on essential needs until full-year budgets are passed.

The bill also prevents automatic PAYGO cuts that would have affected programs like Medicare and certain agriculture supports, giving both states and providers more financial stability.

USDA, WIC, and SNAP

The USDA and FDA got full-year funding through September 30, 2026. That means critical nutrition programs like WIC and SNAP are OK for the next 10 months.

  • WIC funding: $8.2 billion through FY 2026
  • SNAP mandatory funding: $107 billion through FY 2026

AHCCCS

Unlike WIC and SNAP, Medicaid is an entitlement program. Its funding continues automatically and isn’t part of the annual appropriations process. So, it wasn’t directly affected by this shutdown fight.

But – larger changes proposed under H.R. 1—which will reshape and cut funding for Medicaid and other health programs are still in place.

This deal ends the shutdown and gives temporary stability. USDA, FDA, and VA are safely funded through the end of the next fiscal year, so nutrition programs like WIC and SNAP are secure.

But core public health agencies like CDC, NIH, HRSA, SAMHSA, and EPA—will face another funding cliff at the end of January unless Congress acts again. Telehealth flexibility is safe until then too. Medicaid was never in danger this round, but the larger policy debates over health funding will continue into 2026.

Boutique budget bill issue: Hemp

The spending bill also redefined the word “hemp” in federal law. After a 1-year implementation period, intoxicating products made from farmed hemp (Delta-8, THCA etc.) will no longer qualify as “hemp” under federal law (hemp has been OK under federal law while marijuana is still a Schedule 1 narcotic).

Hemp will now be redefined to require that total tetrahydrocannabinols (including THCA) be ≤ 0.3% on a dry-weight basis. That closes the THCA loophole used by chemists who know how to convert THCA to delta-9 THC which is what makes you high.

We can expect lots of state and marijuana industry responses and litigation over the next 12 months. Why?

Basically, because this still doesn’t end the sale of hemp derived THC products at non-licensed marijuana dispensaries in states and state licensed dispensaries. Those places are kinda pissed that the hemp folks are marketing THC products derived from what was hemp at head shops and stuff and want them to knock it off.

Will Humble Professional Development, Wills Blog

AzPHA Student Representative, Dr. Rynn Whealy, Receives National Award

On November 1st, the AzPHA Board of Directors Student Representative, Dr. Ryann Whealy was presented the Council of Affiliates Outstanding Student Award. And coincidentally, her fellow board member, Rebecca Nevedale, had the honor or presenting the award in her role as Chair of the Council of Affiliates. Congratulations, Ryann, on receiving this prestigious award!

Below are the remarks Rebecca shared about Ryann’s contribution to AzPHA.

“Our next award to present is the Outstanding Student Award, and this one is very special to me because the recipient is mine!

Now Doctor Ryann Whealy is the student representative on the Arizona Public Health Association Board of Directors. Ryann has volunteered her time to support programming efforts for the association including to revitalize and expand academic partnerships. She has contributed to the work of AzPHA through her statewide outreach, student engagement and community connections in Flagstaff, where she attended Northern Arizona University. (Go Lumberjacks!)

Ryann aligned her work with AzPHA during National Public Health Week as she coordinated and moderated “Advocacy Starts Here: Amplifying Voices for Public Health” a live panel featuring a mayor, state policy leaders and public health professionals.

The person who nominated Ryann wrote: ‘Ryann’s leadership, reliability and statewide impact are exceptional. She has shown initiative well beyond her formal responsibilities, helped with infrastructure for future student engagement and extended AzPHA’s reach across Arizona’s diverse regions and institutions…’

And I would add that I’ve (Rebecca Nevedale) been on and off the AzPHA board for at least 15 years, and Ryann has truly been the most engaged and inspirational student we’ve had. It took her a while to see how she could contribute, but once she did, our board benefited greatly. We are a stronger board because of Ryann, and we are better prepared to welcome student representatives in the future. She recently moved to Philly so is the Pennsylvania Affiliate’s member now (well… when her AZ dues expire), but she has left such a legacy in the Grand Canyon state.

It has been an incredible honor to watch Ryann over the last few years – going from a somewhat timid and quiet board member to one that (while still quiet), has figured out how to contribute so greatly and think so forward about our affiliate’s academic relations and student connections. It’s truly a great honor to present our 2025 Outstanding Student Award to Dr. Ryann Whealy.”

Will Humble Assurance & Licensure, Wills Blog

GRRC Approves ADHS’ Licensing Fee Update

Last Tuesday the Arizona Governor’s Regulatory Review Council unanimously approved ADHS request to raise fees for licensing healthcare institutions!

The new fees will replace about $3.4M in state general funds that were used to help ADHS fix serious problems in its licensing system. Those problems grew worse under the previous administration, when the agency was short on staff, struggling financially, and suffering from poor leadership.

A report from the Arizona Auditor General found that ADHS had fallen far behind on handling complaints — even serious ones involving unsafe conditions in hospitals and care homes. Some complaints were wrongly labeled as “low risk,” which meant dangerous problems could go unchecked for a year or more. Many were never investigated at all.

By increasing licensing fees, ADHS can now hire and keep the staff needed to do prompt inspections, respond to complaints quickly, and make sure healthcare facilities meet safety standards.

These fees are modest and reasonable, especially compared to the cost of leaving patients at risk. They also make sure that the facilities themselves (not taxpayers) fund the system that keeps them accountable. It essentially immunizes ADHS from  losing the $3.4M in annual revenue that comes from the General Fund.

Thanks to the council’s unanimous vote and ADHS’s leadership for taking a step toward restoring how we protect vulnerable people in our care systems.

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