This week the U.S. House of Representatives narrowly passed a budget bill that extends and expands the massive tax cuts for wealthy individuals first implemented in 2017. At the same time, the bill mandates $880 billion in spending cuts over the next decade.
While the legislation does not specify which programs will be cut, it assigns the House Energy & Commerce Committee the task of deciding where the axe will fall.
The House of Representatives Energy & Commerce Committee oversees Medicaid, Children’s Health Insurance Program, Medicare Part B & Part D, Public Health Programs (including the CDC, NIH, and HRSA), the FDA and the Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration.
One thing is clear: Medicare is off the table. That leaves programs like Medicaid (AHCCCS) and the SNAP as the most likely targets for the committee. If history is any guide, House leadership will fall back on a familiar strategy—forcing states to cover a greater share of Medicaid expansion costs.
For Arizona, that would be bad. As outlined in our recent Arizona Public Health Association blog post, shifting more of the Medicaid costs to the states will result in Arizona’s Republican-controlled legislature refusing to pick up the tab.
That would mean the end of Medicaid coverage for 550,000 Arizonans, including low-income childless adults and people earning between 100% and 138% of the federal poverty level.
Interestingly, the parts of the state that voted for Mr. Trump by the widest margins are in the very areas that stand to lose the most if these cuts happen. Thirty-six percent of working-age Arizona adults who live in rural Arizona are covered by Medicaid versus 17% who live in urban areas (according to data from Georgetown University’s Center for Children and Families).
The House has acted, but the Senate has yet to vote on a budget plan. That means there’s still time for advocacy. If these cuts move forward, Arizona—and states across the country—will see big (and bad) consequences for public health.
Stay tuned.